Deutsche Bank AG (DB) - Get Report shares are down nearly 3% this morning, and has slid 39% year to date. As concerns about potential "contagion" from Turkey's currency crisis and potential spillover effect on the European banking industry, analysts told Real Money that the main concern at Deutsche has much more to do with the company's internal figures and management than any international crises.
"Turkey shouldn't be a big risk for Deutsche Bank," Philipp Hässler, equinet Bank AG analyst told Real Money by phone, noting Turkey is not one of their larger exposures. "The market is skeptical on future revenues at Deutsche."
equinet Bank is a Frankfurt-based investment bank.
Hässler added that while Turkey's currency risk weighs on the confidence in European banks overall, Deutsche is no more in question than any other bank. He pointed to Spanish bank Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA) - Get Report and Italy's UniCredit SpA as institutions with greater exposure than Deutsche Bank, for example.
Deutsche's biggest problem? Showing its investment banking operation can drive revenue.
Bank of American Merrill Lynch analysts Andrew Stimpson and Alastair Ryan echoed this view and downgraded the stock from neutral to underperform in a note on August 13.
"We continue to see revenue headwinds in Corporate and Investment Bank in particular. Valuation is not a huge support in our view as profitability is set to remain much weaker than peers," they wrote. "Sustainable growth is out of reach."
The Bank of America note adds that the analysts "do not see the bank growing revenues again, even with a flat balance sheet."
The Bank of America note makes no mention of Turkey. Lead analyst Andy Stimpson's office declined to speak on the Turkish crisis' effect on his analysis of Deutsche.
One area where both BAML and equinet were confident in the bank was in its cost-cutting efforts, which have resulted in sweeping layoffs.
"Investors are more willing to believe the company on costs and costs cuts," Hässler explained.
CEO Christian Sewing reported in the company's second quarter earnings on July 25 on cost cutting initiatives, namely laying off 1,700 employees in the second quarter.
Staff cuts are set to continue, in pursuit of lowering its total staff count to below 93,000 employees by year end and "well below 90,000" in 2019.
Analysts are not confident about the bank's efforts to generate revenue even with its significant cost reductions, but it will be a small relief to investors that at least the Turkish crisis won't be a major headwind for the bank.