Why the Election Is Keeping this Former NYSE Trader Up at Night

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What are you worried about?

Real Money contributor Stephen Guilfoyle had some thoughts on what's going to keep him up at night in 2020.


"Well, I do think we're going to have to run into some volatility in the next, the first quarter or so as we get to fourth-quarter earnings. As we realized that earnings are not keeping up with valuation, although there are reasons for the higher than historical averages via valuation, I think that we're going to see some volatility caused there. I think when the Fed pulls back on the balance sheet expansion program, we're going to have a temper tantrum in March when they speak about it, maybe leaving it, put something into play. So I think the first three quarters of the year are the dicey quarters," said Guilfoyle.

"Then we move on to the middle part of the year. A lot of volatility metrics are going one way or the other either. It's very calm going into the election because the incumbent is doing well on the polls and he's seen as as a business-friendly leader or if it goes the other way, that's when it gets extremely messy because if it goes against the president, the election, if it's a [Joe] Biden or a [Michael] Bloomberg, okay, they're not really disastrous for business. I think the market will, we'll take that, well we'll take it in stride, but if it goes beyond those two if you start pricing and increased regulation, higher taxes, what the market's going to give back a lot. A lot of what is provided," he continued. 

Watch the full video for more. 

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