It seems every few months global economic forecasts are revised lower.
It happened again Monday, as the National Association for Business and Economics said the risk of a recession coming sooner rather than later is rising "rapidly." The major culprit behind the potential recession is the trade conflict sparked by the U.S., and that conflict took an ugly turn Monday.
Fist, here's what the NABE said about recession.=:
The risk of a recession starting at the end of 2020 is 60%, according to the NABE's panelists. That risk is 15% for the end of 2019. "Increased trade protectionism is considered the primary downside risk to growth by a majority of respondents, followed by financial market strains and a global growth slowdown," said Chairman of NABE and Chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics Gregory Daco.
The NABE economists see GDP slowing from 3.2% at the end of 2018 to 1.9% by the end of 2020.
That trade picture didn't get any better Monday. News broke that China said it is no longer interested in a broad-based trade agreement with the U.S. Now, it seems more likely than not that tariffs on Chinese goods coming into the U.S. scheduled to go into effect in December will go into effect. Recently, UBS Chief Investment Officer of Wealth Management Mark Haefele wrote "A further escalation beyond the tariff increases already in the pipeline would markedly increase the risk of recession." He is positioning his clients portfolios defensively.
The S&P 500 fell 0.22% Monday, with the other two major U.S. indices down. The probability of a third Federal Reserve interest rate cut in 2019 rose to 81%, according to data from CME Group. That cut may help ease the economy a bit, but many say the Fed may be running out of juice for the economy as rates are already low.
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