Which Deals Will Get Done? An Arbitrageur Handicaps the Mega-Mergers

An arbitrageur handicaps the recent frenzy the mega-deals including British American Tobacco/Reynolds, AT&T/Time Warner, Janus/Henderson and Qualcomm/NXP.
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British American Tobacco (BTI) - Get Report  is offering to pay $56.50 a share for the 57.8% stake it does not already own in Reynolds American (RAI) , the maker of Camel and Pall Mall cigarettes, in a cash and shares deal valued at $47 billion. Unlike a few of the big deals announced in recent weeks, this one won't give the arbitrage community much of a headache, said Thomas Kirchner, portfolio manager for the Quaker Event Arbitrage Fund (QEAAX) . Kirchner says the $85.4 billion deal for AT&T (T) - Get Report to buy Time Warner (TWX) poses more of a problem for the arbitrageurs. In the financial services arena, shares of Denver-based investment firm Janus Capital (JNS) spiked 15% last month after London's Henderson Group announced it had agreed to acquire the firm. While Kirchner believes this deal will ultimately be completed, he does point out that it is actually a tax inversion "even though it is not being advertised as such" since the resulting company will be domiciled in the U.K. Finally, semiconductor maker Qualcomm (QCOM) - Get Report  struck a $47 billion deal to buy NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) - Get Report  last month. The San Diego buyer will offer $110 a share for NXP, which is based in Eindhoven, the Netherlands, and last traded around $100 a share. Kirchner is reasonably confident this merger will be completed due to the significant consolidation in the semiconductor space.