The Real Risk in Emerging Markets: Surplus/Deficit Figures
Because developed market interest rates during the period of quantitative easing have been so low, it has made sense for these emerging market corporates to borrow.
In recent years, much of the borrowing in emerging markets hasn't been counted in standard current account surplus/deficit figures. Jared Woodard of Condor Options meets with Jill Malandrino to explain why and to position some emerging market trades. Because developed market interest rates, especially in the U.S., during the period of quantitative easing have been so low, it has made sense for these emerging market corporates to borrow. As QE ends and borrowing costs rise, these flows will naturally reverse, and the size of the debt load presents serious challenges for EM deficit countries.
