Cowen has an underperform rating and $210 price target on the stock, representing a potential 51% downside from the stock’s previous closing price above $420 a share. Tesla was down 3% to $413.11 Monday.
“Excluding the Netherlands and China, we expect Model 3 deliveries to be down,” Cowen analyst Jeffrey Osborne wrote. His estimate “highlights the demand saturation we are seeing across most mature markets as we shift from pent-up demand to steady flow demand.”
Cowen expects Tesla to deliver about 356,000 vehicles for the year, below the company’s October target range between 360,000 and 400,000 vehicles.
Despite the downside outlook for 2020, the firm did raise its fourth-quarter delivery estimate to 101,000 from 95,000 due to increased expected demand in the Netherlands and China.
Part of Osborne’s bear case is that Tesla has pricing and mix issues that will affect the company’s margins in the near term. And while China is a tailwind currently, he doesn't foresee demand staying strong in the long term.