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Katherine Ross: Sarge, recession on the horizon? Yes or no?

Stephen Guilfoyle: Tough question. The easier answer is that with the 10 year yielding, roughly one and a half percent with the 30 year yielding 2% and with the CPI yielding 1.8% and 2.2% of the core Americans are already living in a negative interest rate environment. And what that does, what that tells purchasing managers and guys like myself who invest is that we have entered the eighth or ninth inning of the business cycle. This can change. We could come to peace with China on the trade war. We could come to the piece with Europe on that mini trade war. Brexit could, the British folks could find a deal on their Brexit exit. There are a number of things that could change us, but the way things stand now, the business cycle is telling us that it wants to end.

 

It's a question that is lingering the back of investors minds -- despite strong consumer data, should investors be worried about a recession?

Stephen Guilfoyle, a Real Money contributor, spoke to TheStreet about his thoughts on a possible recession. 

"The easier answer is that with the 10-year yielding, roughly one and a half percent with the 30-year yielding 2% and with the CPI yielding 1.8% and 2.2% of the core Americans are already living in a negative interest rate environment. And what that does, what that tells purchasing managers and guys like myself who invest is that we have entered the eighth or ninth inning of the business cycle. This can change. We could come to peace with China on the trade war. We could come to the piece with Europe on that mini trade war. Brexit could, the British folks could find a deal on their Brexit exit. There are a number of things that could change us, but the way things stand now, the business cycle is telling us that it wants to end," said Guilfoyle. 

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