If the Shoe Fits, Trade It? Nike Faces This Huge Risk Ahead

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The stock has roared. 

Now, one analyst is warning short-term investors against what he sees as heightened downside risk for the immediate. 

Nike (NKE) - Get Report reports earnings on September 24, and the athletic wear maker may very well meet or beat Wall Street expectations, but it's a currency headwinds that could threaten guidance that investors should watch out for. "Our estimates are being reduced (reported sales from ~+7.7% to ~+6.6%, EPS from $2.92 to $2.86; consensus +7.9%, EPS $2.90) to take into account the higher negative foreign exchange impact," Wedbush Securities analyst Chris Svezia wrote in a note out Tuesday.

With the stock up 19% year-to-date to $ 88.67 a share the potentially lowered guidance could spark a "negative share reaction."

The stock does trade at 26 times expected earnings for the next year, which is a "premium" valuation according to many analysts, premium to the company's historical valuation. But that could be justified if Nike to grow its China and Asia sales at 20% and above, supported by its strong direct-to-consumer business. Nike's DTC business, which has been growing at above 12%, is higher margin and involves a heavy dose of digital sales. That could continue for a while as Nike is rolling out its app in areas of Asia. 

Last quarter, higher operating expenses offset a revenue beat, causing EPS to miss estimates. The growth of those expenses, related to the DTC business, should soon abate, supporting operating margins. 

Case in point: the stock could trade down short-term, but the longer-term story is intact, a view widely held in the analyst community. 

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