National Retail Federation: Holiday Sales To See 4.1% Increase

Americans are expected to spend at the highest rate in three years during what's traditionally the busiest shopping season of the year, according to the nation's largest retail industry trade group. But industry watchers say shoppers will need fat discounts, and there will be a huge divide in spending between the haves and have-nots. The National Retail Federation said Tuesday that it expects sales during the November and December period to be up 4.1% to $616.9 billion, up a percentage point higher than last year. It marks the highest increase since 2011 when the rise was 4.8%. Still, analysts say retailers will need promotions to lure shoppers. The prediction is an indicator for stores that rely on the last two months of the year, which on average account for 20% of annual retail industry sales. The figure also provides some insight into the mindset of consumers, which is important since consumer spending accounts for up to 70% of economic activity.