The Bureau of Labor Statistics may very well be simply off the market. A little bit.
I'll explain, in a moment.
But first, here are the facts.
The number of net added jobs in the U.S. in June, according to ADP, was 102,000, far below economist's expectations of 140,000. That was reported Wednesday July 3. But the BLS reported Friday of that week that the number was actually 240,000, far better than economist's expectations. The market clearly knew what it wanted to listened to, as stocks fell after the BLS' report because investors took the strong jobs number as a sign the Federal Reserve would be less ready to lower interest rates. That was dispelled by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell Wednesday, as the S&P 500 rose slightly to a record high of 3,000 points.
But investors should consider that it may be the ADP number that's more representative of the truth. Here's how that works.
"ADP right now is actually a little bit more real time given some of the other survey data that we've seen. And the nonfarm payroll number was messy, flat out messy," said former adviser to the president of the Dallas Fed and Founder and CEO of Quill Intelligence Danielle DiMartino Booth.
"You have to understand these data series at the BLS are much more prone to revision," she added. "The one thing that the Fed will notice is that we've had three back-to-back months now of downward revisions to prior months. So I would not be surprised to see that strong June number revise down and come closer to what the message was in those ADP numbers."