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John Carter Markets Analysis: Don't Fight the Tape

The primary thought from today's analysis is, don't fight the tape.

The primary thought from today's analysis is, don't fight the tape. What does that mean exactly? We've seen some wild swings and you need to be able to adjust quickly. John Carter of Simpler Options looks at a few of his favorite markets for that type of action and how to trade each instance. Is it time to swoop in a buy on weakness or will we restest the lows and move lower? Carter explains that chart work points to a decline into the end of September, possibly to the 1721 level in the S&P. That said, there is the potential to rally to 2013 due to short covering rallies before moving over. Carter is using rallies to set up bearish positions by selling calls or selling S&P futures and shows what indicators and averages he is using on the charts to initiate strategies. This could also be a good time to sell puts on a decline as premiums are elevated in the case of Facebook (FB), for example. You could also play the other side of the tape with premium sales. In a rally, Carter would be looking to sell calls on Google (GOOGL). Directional plays would include buying puts on the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), shorting the SPX or Nasdaq (NDX). Carter looks at Sucampo Pharmaceuticals (SCMP), which has been holding up pretty well in a choppy tape and would look to sell September 25 puts as Carter would not mind owning the stock at $25. SCMP is sitting above key moving averages which is a bullish for the price action. As the markets move lower, these are the kind of ideas you should be looking for longer-term. Gopro (GPRO), in the other hand, is not a stock Carter is buying and would look to sell on rallies. As you can see on the chart, it is well below the key moving averages Carter uses for his chart work. Finally, Carter reviews the TRIN indicator and what he thinks it is signaling.

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