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John Carter Analysis: S&P 500 Futures Trading and Market Sentiment

Today's Big Idea has a primary focus on SPX.

Today's Big Idea has a primary focus on SPX. Stock indexes have fallen quickly over the past several sessions and the most important thing to understand about this market is we are now ready to Sell the Rip (STFR) where we've been very accustomed to Buy the Dip (BTFD). These acronyms are a bit tongue in cheek, but the concept is critical. This applies to stock indexes along with individual tickers and you there's a few intraday signals you can use to judge these kinds of moves. These type of markets can be a lot of fun if you know how to trade them because the moves can be volatile and fast. Overnight positions can be more difficult since there can be horrendous moves to the downside and quick, small short covering rallies. Out-of-the-money calls or puts can be attractive here because these extreme moves can take stock prices beyond strike prices. Carter shows examples on the overnight futures charts how overnight action can be bought or sold into. The key is the psychology behind traders getting used to buying dips and selling rips. When markets move as extreme as they are now, Carter recommends looking at intraday, hourly charts to identify setups and trends and where to focus on buying dips and selling on spikes up. Selling premium has been risky in this environment and Carter cautions against getting “married” to a position. Another technical indicator Carter watches is the “Tick” as it has been constructive in this environment. The Tick gives you a lot of information in terms of sentiment, whether neutral bearish or bullish and volume, which is an indicator of conviction to the long and short side. It looked as if there were some break out opportunities to the upside in Tuesday’s session, but the Tick indicator showed where the weakness and break down occurred.

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