In today's update, we start with a look at the S&P which has been making huge moves which we can classify as "the ebola scare" and "the ebola non-scare." The initial down move measured at 3 ATRs (average true range), and we have bounced back to overbought levels. Here, the market should at least pause. The Nasdaq looks fantastic, with stocks like AAPL and FB making new all-time highs every day. As we've been saying for weeks now, the Russell is the index to watch as it leads both to the downside and the upside. At these levels it does not look particularly impressive, and has only managed to rally to its intermediate term downtrend line. Energy is a huge component of the S&P, and the bounce in the XLE has been less than impressive. Without energy picking up, the S&P is going to have a tough time rallying. Crude looks like its going lower, and as prices drop that should lead to more supply hitting the markets. In combination with a strong dollar, equities are potentially in trouble. The dollar's monthly chart is the story, which implies a continued rally in the months to come. As this dynamic plays out, bonds are also setting up strongly for a monthly squeeze. As far as commodities, grains have tried to bottom, and I like buying soybeans, corn, and wheat on pullbacks. Live cattle remains my favorite commodity market.
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