To start the week, we're taking a big picture look at macro markets where we've seen extended moves in currencies, stock indexes, bonds, and energy. Trader's need to ask themselves, are these moves going to retrace or continue? Honing in on individual charts, we see the Euro came down from almost 1.4 in May to roughly 1.28 as of last week. I'm expecting a brief bounce but continuation lower in the Euro. The US dollar remains strong and should go higher, which will have implications for commodities. The Yen continues to be strongly correlated to equities, so on Yen strength in the coming weeks I anticipate continued stock weakness. Bonds were very strong last week on big volume, but they appear extended here. A brief pullback will allow a relief rally in stocks. As far as uncorrelated markets, live cattle remains in a strong uptrend supported by bullish fundamental conditions. Sugar has been consolidating and also appears bullish but not as strong as live cattle. In energy markets, crude has gotten hammered as the dollar strengthens and output continues to increase. Natural gas looks ready for a snap-back rally. I believe gold remains weak for the next year and a half and am looking for an opportunity to get short. Stock indexes should get a bounce here to start the week and we will reassess after a rally. The Russell remains a leading indicator to keep tabs of.
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