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Interest Rates Hikes vs. Cuts: What It Means for Investors

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We've seen a couple of hikes, so is it now time for a rate cut?

Jeffrey Cleveland, chief economist at Payden & Rygel, said that "the bond market is betting on this though. I think there's a 60% chance in the Fed funds futures market of a rate cut."

"This is far too much pessimism priced in my opinion though," He continued. "The bond market is wrong here. I work for a bond firm, so it's common to say that bond investors are smarter than stock investors. That's what bond investors like to tell themselves. But the bond market can be wrong, and I think this is a good example of that. It's pessimistic. It's jumping too far ahead of itself."

On the other hand, Cleveland said that he's not sure that the next meeting will end with a interest rate cut on the table.

"Just because the Fed is on hold doesn't mean the next move is a cut. It's entirely possible that the Fed just hangs out right where they are for six, maybe nine months, and then, at some point, if the economy holds up, we don't have the recession, like I think. We do get a bit more inflation down the road. The Fed comes back and does hike again. That'd be my bet. I think a hike is still more likely than a cut. So, I don't see a cut," said Cleveland.

Related. When the Market Gives You a Gift, Just Accept It

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