It has been an awful summer for gold.
And just when things could not get any worse for the yellow metal, prices dipped below $1,200 an ounce in early trading Monday morning -- a nearly 1.5-year low.
So does this mark the final leg down and the end of the pain for many gold investors?
"Someday, at some point, it will happen," said Mike McGlone, commodity strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence in an interview on Friday. "Have we reached the point of maximum loss of faith? We may be pretty close," McGlone added.
Gold prices are down and hit a nearly 1.5-year low as they fell below key chart support at $1,200.00. Silver futures prices dropped to a more-than-two-year low overnight. A surging U.S. dollar index is trumping currency market turmoil to drive the precious metals markets lower. December gold futures were last down $11.90 an ounce at $1,207.10.September Comex silver was last down $0.13 at $15.165 an ounce.
"If the history of compressed gold prices is a guide, the dollar should be peaking, with the potential for higher gold prices far outweighing downside risks. It's been about two decades since gold sustained a narrower 24-month range," McGlone said.
And while a stronger dollar and U.S. economic growth are hurting bullion's appeal, concerns that Turkey's financial crisis could spread may give the metal a reversal of fate. "Gold's short-cover risks are elevated. The setup, with prices near key support and near-record-short net positions, is a recipe for a sharp rally and potential longer-term bottom," McGlone said.
Technically, gold bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price downtrend on the daily bar chart. Gold bulls' next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close in December futures above solid resistance at $1,230.00. Bears' next near-term downside price breakout objective is pushing prices below solid technical support at $1,150.00.
This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author held TK positions in the stocks mentioned.