Gold Rally: Flash in the Pan or Sustainable? Market Expert Chimes In

The gold market is going to need another paradigm shift if it is going to see another rise similar to its recent run, which pushed prices to a one-year high.
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The gold market is going to need another paradigm shift if it is going to see another rise similar to its recent run, which pushed prices to a one-year high, according to one economist at CME Group. Senior economist Erik Norland explains that gold’s parabolic run since hitting a multi-year low in December was the result of shifting expectations of Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes. However, since then, a rout in oil prices, a global market meltdown and disappointing growth forecasts have pushed rate-hike expectations to practically zero and gold has been the biggest beneficiary. But prices do not have much room for further growth. 'While the likelihood of a very slow pace of future Fed tightening is indeed good news for gold investors, the bad news is that the change in expectations that drove the rally may have largely run their course. Basically, there isn’t much of a rate-hike expectation left to de-price,' says Norland. For gold to shift higher, Norland says that markets now have to start pricing in renewed easing from the Fed, even the possibility of introducing negative interest rates. April Comex gold was last up $10.10 at $1,220.20 an ounce. March Comex silver was last up $0.026 at $15.21 an ounce.