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FBI Investigation Into Clinton Emails Sways Prediction Markets, Not Yet Polls

The FBI's decision to reopen its investigation into Hillary Clinton's emails hasn't yet registered significantly in the polls, but it has in the prediction markets.

The FBI's decision to reopen its investigation into Hillary Clinton's emails hasn't yet registered significantly in the polls, but it has in the prediction markets. The former first lady's odds of winning the White House in November dipped about 10 points, to 70% from 80%, in the wake of bureau director James Comey's letter to Congress informing them of the FBI's discovery of potentially related material Friday. Donald Trump's chances in North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Michigan -- where he is campaigning this week -- have improved as well, said Flip Pidot, analyst at PredictIt, in an interview Monday with TheStreetNate Silver's FiveThirtyEight hasn't yet registered a significant shift in Trump's director or away from Clinton. As more "post-October Surprise" polls come in over the coming days, that might change -- the prediction markets appear to think it will.

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