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Katherine Ross: ( 00:00)
US, China trade talks are once again in the headlines. Tim, when we're looking at the market, what should we be expecting from the US China trade talks?

Tim Anderson: ( 00:08)
Well, clearly if investors are discounting that there is going to be some positive development out of the trade talks and I think there's probably a range of outcomes most likely that they will announce a some specific action on lifting tariffs, some specific action on how much stuff China's going to buy from us and maybe vice versa. And then I don't, I doubt that they'll have detailed an outcome as to the intellectual property rights issue and the, and the privacy issues. But they are going to announce that they have a framework to resolve that and there's more details and more work to, uh, to take place,

Katherine Ross: ( 00:54)
see the market continue to move every time we get a new to us trying to trade talk at lunch.

Tim Anderson: ( 00:59)
But look, I think the market is moving on much more than just that because the economic data that we've seen come out and there's been a lot of noise involved in a lot of the reports. Um, some of it from the government shut down, but the economic, the macro data on the economy has been very positive. Okay. I, I know that some people had an issue where the retail sales report early in the week. I did not. I thought it was a strong report. And I also think there's this very subtle undertone of the economy shifting a little bit into all more manufacturing driven economy. Uh, and we, we, we've seen that in the durable goods orders earlier this week. We saw it in the construction spending numbers and we've seen it in a number of the cap x spending related data points that have come out on the economy. A lot of people poopooed the, uh, tax deal that has avo. Yeah, it was great for last year, but it's going to run out of steam in a hurry. It's really not because the corporate tax rate is still at 21%. It's not going back up to where it was. And for big industrial corporations to expand and build plant and add equipment, that's a multiyear process.

Katherine Ross: ( 02:13)
So do you like the economy where it is right now?

Tim Anderson: ( 02:15)
Yes, I think we're in a very good spot right now. Now we're not, you know, we're not going to hit, you know, 4% GDP or the for first quarter is obviously going to be a tough quarter. The first quarter has been a very tough quarter for GDP for years. Uh, and even senior economists will say there's a glitch in the way we monitor and record first quarter GDP. It's always at least 1% light from the rest of the year. But going forward, I think that we were going, I think we're in a very strong place for the economy. We're not going to have a recession this year and I really don't think we're going to have a recession in.

Katherine Ross: ( 02:58)
And what about the markets? What are you looking at right now in the market?

Tim Anderson: ( 03:01)
Well, old, I'm looking very carefully at the breadth and the internals of the market. The market had a great first three days of the week and really consolidated. Most of those gains yesterday was, you know, pretty mixed, much mixed performance. But the breadth of the market has been impressive. Uh, two of the three days, Monday through Wednesday, all 11 sop, uh, uh, 500 sub sectors were positive. Um, and that's a, that's a very good sign. Uh, and, and you know, right now you're at a very, what have been very stubborn resistant levels for the s and p 500, between 2,800 and let's say maybe 28, 25, 28, 30, and Nasdaq just above, uh, closed above 7,600 for the first time since last November. So we're trying to break out today's a funny day because it's a big expiration day, but next week, and look, we're two weeks before the end of the quarter. It would be very unusual to see the market take a big hit just before the end of the first quarter.

Katherine Ross: ( 04:11)
You mentioned that today's a funny day and I'm wondering how our professional traders trading today.

Tim Anderson: ( 04:17)
Well, frankly, I know a lot of professional traders that take this day off because it's a quadruple exploration of both, uh, individual stock options, uh, uh, stock index options and, and futures. And it's also an s and p 500 rebalancing day on top of it all. And that just creates so much noise that a lot of professional traders just say, you know what, this is one day of the year. I really do, would rather not deal with, they don't want to go through the exercise of trying to Gasser or our or our estimate what direction stocks are going to go into a day because a big imbalances that might take place late in the day, the, the massive index funds that dominate that activity have that whole routine down very well. They might do a little bit early, they might still do a little bit next week. Uh, but a lot of professional traders don't like all the noise on a day. Like today,

Katherine Ross: ( 05:18)
we saw apple come out with a new commercial about privacy and I'm wondering, you know, how are the Fang stocks, her social media stocks looking at t rain? Wow. Well,

Tim Anderson: ( 05:26)
Facebook I think is, is, is very much in the news right now. And you had a couple of key executives resigned, uh, yesterday. We really don't know what, you know exactly what it was related to, but the New York Times had this big story yesterday about, about grand jury that's been in paneled in the eastern district in New York. And there was some talk late yesterday that the Justice Department might be considering a, a multibillion dollar, uh, fine. Um, I just think that this is an issue that's not going to go away because the, the social media companies have said over and over and over again how much they value privacy. But then another story comes out on how it's an issue. So I don't know what the answer is. I don't know exactly what it's, you know, where it's going, but I just think that people, I just think that people that have been in the stocks for a long time, I'm going to be very cautious.

Katherine Ross: ( 06:26)
And we saw, we had chip stocks announced last night. So I'm wondering the sector as a whole, how does that look to you? You know, technology has actually been in a, in a, in a, in a leadership mode,

Tim Anderson: ( 06:36)
uh, this week. Uh, and I, I certainly think that a part of that is due to increased capex spending. Got a lot of companies are, uh, are going through different stages of right now. Uh, and a lot of it will do to the, if we get a resolution of the China trade negotiations, clearly there is a lot of chip manufacturing activity, uh, in the Asian region region and that would lift, um, some of the uncertainty that surrounded those stocks probably for at least the second half of last year.

Katherine Ross: ( 07:21)
All right, Tim, thank you for joining me. You're very welcome. It was nice to talk to you. Stick with the street for all the latest news.

Tim Anderson, managing director at TJM Investments, talked to TheStreet about the impact of positive headlines on U.S.-China trade talks, and what he's seeing in the markets Friday, March 15.

"I think the market is moving on much more than just [the trade talks] because the economic data that we've seen come out and there's been a lot of noise involved in a lot of the reports," said Anderson. "Some of it from the government shutdown, but the macro-data on the economy has been very positive. I know that some people had an issue where the retail sales report early in the week. I did not. I thought it was a strong report. And I also think there's this very subtle undertone of the economy shifting a little bit into all more manufacturing driven economy."

Anderson also discussed the market movements in the first part of the week and how the market is having a "funny" day Friday. 

"I know a lot of professional traders that take this day off because it's a quadruple exploration of both, uh, individual stock options, uh, uh, stock index options and, and futures. And it's also an s and p 500 re-balancing day on top of it all. And that just creates so much noise that a lot of professional traders just say, you know what, this is one day of the year I really would rather not deal with," said Anderson. "They don't want to go through the exercise of trying to guess or estimate what direction stocks are going to go into a day because of big imbalances that might take place late in the day, the, the massive index funds that dominate that activity have that whole routine down very well. They might do a little bit early, they might still do a little bit next week. But, a lot of professional traders don't like all the noise on a day like today."

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