Dumbest Thing on Wall Street: iPhone X Doubters

Sure, it might take a little longer than other models to get to your door. But this phone is about to upend holiday retail and the consumer tech industry at large.
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We all know the story of how the Grinch stole Christmas, but what about the iPhone X?

Apple Inc. (AAPL) - Get Report is well on its way to flip Whoville on its head with the debut of the iPhone X, which launched in stores Friday. This could be the first year softline retailers like Abercrombie post a fourth quarter sales decline since the recession. That's because spending on the groundbreaking new iPhone X is set to limit spending in other categories, sources have told me.

Think of it like this: If you drop $999 on the iPhone X for your kid, you're probably less likely to buy that new winter jacket.

Sure, the new model has taken a little longer than usual to get to customers' hands, but if you're still doubting the iPhone X, you're one of the dumbest on Wall Street.

According to Canaccord, the iPhone upgrade rate for the 2018 cycle will jump to over 32% from just 26% a year earlier. iPhones have always been expensive, but more people are going to upgrade this one, which is the most expensive yet.

The pre-order launch for the iPhone X was so strong that shipment lead times surged in the first hour of availability to reach five to six weeks. Clearly, there's no problem on the demand side, Drexel Hamilton said.

It's the supply side that has raised some concerns, as Apple deals with production ramp constraints. That's where pessimists have latched on, arguing that Apple has attempted the impossible or asserting the new model will flop on lofty expectations.

And while I recognize that six weeks is a long time to wait for a new phone and Apple has faced some trouble with the model, it's important to remember that this is Apple.

We're talking about a company that has put their phones in more than 700 million hands globally, not some phony tech company promising the world and under-delivering.

If you don't think Apple will steal the holiday season from clothing retailers -- if not many retailers -- you're probably one of the dumbest on Wall Street.

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