The party opposite the President has traditionally performed well in Congressional mid-term elections. Jeb Bush discussed this with us in the first part of our outlook on the 2018 mid-terms. Another point to consider is the election map. In the Senate, in particular, a shifting of power could be difficult for Democrats as they face what David Axelrod described to us as a "structural barrier": 10 Democratic senators face re-election in states Donald Trump won in 2016. The House of Representatives has a better chance to flip, however, according to Axelrod. "More than several" suburban swing districts could shift the balance to Democrats this fall, he says. "Based on the results I saw in 2017, this is going to be a real battleground."

See Axelrod's analysis of the upcoming election, including the role he thinks President Trump might play, in the video above.

Written by Evan Peterson. Read more from the author here.

Read more stories like this on OpenMarkets. And for trader tools and resources visit: https://activetrader.cmegroup.com

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