All the January Signs Point to a Bull Market in 2017
If you are looking for a sign, a dream or even a hint on how the markets will fare this year, there are a few early market indicators that can help you to gauge whether we will be in a bear or bull market. So far this January is looking pretty good.
One of the first indicators in January is the Santa Claus Rally. It's an increase in the S&P 500 within the last five trading days in December and the first two in January. The Stock Trader's Almanac says this rally has shown an average gain of 1.4% since 1969. And the market already got off to a good in 2017, with a 0.43% rise in the S&P 500 between Dec. 22 and Jan. 4.
Next, analyzing the first five trading days of January is considered "an early warning system" for markets. The Almanac found that about 83% of the time, when the first five trading days of the S&P 500 rose, markets ended with full-year gains. Since 2017 is a post-election year, there's a 75% chance that the market's direction will end up following this January's 1.4% gain as of Jan. 9.
Finally, there's the full month of January barometer. Depending on whether the S&P 500 is up or down for the month, that could show where the markets will fall for the year -- so the story goes. The Almanac says this indicator is right 87.9% of the time.
So 2017 will be an interesting year. While we don't have a crystal ball, maybe we can glean a little insight from somewhere.









