The S&P 500 is more likely to retest its 2018 low of 2,581 than revisit its high of 2,873.

That's the assessment from Kenny Polcari, managing director of O'Neil Securities, based on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.

A move to 2,581 represents a decline of about 170 points from current levels, or a drop of 6%.

Polcari said 2,581 is a key technical support level that the market needs to rest to reassure itself that buyers will defend that level.

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