The Federal Reserve releases its minutes Wednesday at 2 p.m. ET, and the chances the reserve bank will lower rates have risen.
Here are three things to watch:
Hints For Stimulus
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell doesn't like to tip his hand, but he sometimes hints at the direction of his next move.
Look for hints that the Fed will induce stimulus, or lower interest rates, in 2020. Inflation has remained stubborn at 2% in the U.S., with wage growth above 3% and unemployment very low at 3.6%. It seems hard, now, to imagine inflation getting much higher, making it hard for the Fed to raise interest rates. Recently, a poll showed roughly 70% of economists predicting a rate cut in 2020.
With inflation staying put and the chances of stimulus rising, the 10-year treasury yield could fall, pricing in stimulus.
The 10-year currently yields 2.4%, down from the 2.62% at the start of 2019. It's hard for that yield to slip further, as bond investors seemed to have priced in a high probability of a 2020 rate cut.
Always watch stocks. If the Fed sees in the economic data something to prompt it to consider raising rates, or at least to dispel greater chances of stimulus, stocks would likely fall.
Any hint of higher rates would likely put stock investors, afraid of economic growth being chocked, off in a bad mood. Watch the Dow Jones Industrial Average, home to especially economically sensitive stocks, and the S&P 500.