Tesla's China Model Y Plans Revealed?

Rob Maurer

After reports last week that Tesla may be planning to export from Giga Shanghai, more information on Tesla's factory in China may have been uncovered this week. Tesla follower Kelvin Yang on Twitter shared a report from a heat pump supplier in China, Aotecar, which discloses heat pump supply plans for an electric vehicle manufacturer.

"[In] terms of new customers, the company has won an order for another model from a well-known North American electric vehicle manufacturer in China, which has a large output," the report shared in a quote that has been translated, presumably referring to Tesla.

The report shares a table with more specifics on the company's orders. The headings roughly translate as follows:

Client | Model | Contract Signing Date | Mass Production Date | Estimated Annual Volume (10,000 Unit Sets)

Screen Shot 2020-09-14 at 9.18.16 PM

"Client 1" is the electric vehicle manufacturer referred to in the quote above. The volumes for Client 1 in the last column (200,000 and 450,000) would seem to correlate to Tesla's Model 3 and Model Y respectively, given that Tesla's Phase 1 at Giga Shanghai has a production capacity of 200,000 Model 3s annually and Tesla expects more demand for Model Y. Between the two vehicles, Tesla may be preparing for an annual output of 650,000 EVs per year from Shanghai.

The dates are interesting, as well. It looks like Tesla may be planning to convert the Shanghai Model 3 to utilize a heat pump beginning in January, 2021, and it also seems like Tesla has prepared the supplier to ramp heat pump supply for Model Y beginning last month. This could indicate Tesla's intent to start production of Model Y in China ahead of current expectations.

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Disclosure: Rob Maurer is long TSLA stock and derivatives.