As Tesla heads into the final two months of 2020, attention is beginning to shift towards 2021. Tesla has a lot on their slate for the year, particularly for Model Y, targeting the start of production in Shanghai, Berlin, and Austin for the vehicle over the course of the year.
Tesla expects more localized production to lower logistics costs alongside scale of production, and investors are eager to start seeing the results. Closely watched is Tesla's Gigafactory in Berlin, which has been under construction since early this year. Twitter user @tobilindh has been tracking construction milestones and comparing them with the buildout of Tesla's Giga Shanghai.
So far, Tesla has outpaced Shanghai milestones in Berlin. If the timeline is similar from this point on, body-in-white production may be on track to start just after the new year with production following in late Q1 or early Q2.
Adding some (albeit low confidence) supporting evidence to this idea, Teslarati today reported on a Model Y order-holder in the Netherlands who was contacted by a Tesla representative about the possible timing of delivery.
“This morning, I got a call from Tesla in the Netherlands with some questions on my order. In that conversation, the Tesla employee told me that they expect to deliver my Berlin build model Y in Q1 or Q2 of 2021. They had just received an internal update on the building process in Berlin," the customer wrote to Teslarati.
The timing, while aggressive, does seem possible based on Tesla's progress thus far. If the information is accurate, perhaps other orderers will receive similar updates which would help verify the timeline.
For more on Tesla, including Consumer Reports' ranking of Tesla's Autopilot system below Cadillac's Super Cruise, please see the included video and be sure to follow Tesla Daily on The Street.
Disclosure: Rob Maurer is long TSLA stock and derivates.