Watch: Jim Cramer & Rob Maurer Discuss TSLA Stock, Elon Musk, and Battery Day

Rob Maurer

In the video above, Jim Cramer joins Rob Maurer to discuss Tesla's valuation, Elon Musk, Wall St.'s expectations for Tesla's upcoming battery day, and Tesla's advantages versus its competition.

Timestamps:

  • 0:00 Introduction
  • 0:43 How has Cramer's thinking on Tesla evolved over time?
  • 4:18 Is TSLA stock overvalued at $1,900 per share?
  • 6:08 What are the expectations for Tesla's Battery Day? Does Tesla have a million mile battery?
  • 13:43 Why isn't Tesla advertising?
  • 15:12 Tesla's differentiating factors
  • 16:32 Will Tesla's Cybertruck be successful?
  • 21:20 What is exciting about Tesla right now? S&P 500 inclusion? Stock split? Why is Tesla ahead?
  • 30:44 Is Elon Musk TSLA's biggest risk?
  • 32:45 Is Tesla stock being manipulated?
  • 39:28 Tesla is a technology company

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Disclosure: Rob Maurer is long TSLA stock and derivatives. Jim Cramer image credit to David Grogan.

Comments (14)
VTSkier
VTSkier

Tesla has done something totally awesome and unprecedented in the automotive industry with the Cybertruck. I believe they have introduced the very first vehicle with NO designed obsolescence. Tesla motors are designed to last a million miles. Tesla batteries coming soon are designed to last a million miles (search YouTube for "million mile battery"). How do you design a pickup truck body to last a million miles? a) Make it out of stainless steel. b) Make it thick stainless steel for strength, damage resistance, and durability. c) Use highly break-resistant glass (given SpaceX's experience with early explosions and perfecting designs, I have no doubt the armor glass will perform correctly in production). d) Give it long range and make it affordable. e) Make the structural design mainly triangles for the highest strength since thick stainless steel can only be bent by powerful sheet metal brakes. f) Given these physics constraints, might as well make it look futuristic and cutting-edge.
Add in autonomous driving within a short time and the resultant enormous decrease in accidents and at an average of 13,500 miles per year, a million miles = 74 YEARS lifetime.
Given that lifespan, futuristic looks are important. 74 years ago was 1946, how do 1946 cars look now? (Think old antiques).
Given my current age, an autonomous vehicle makes a LOT of sense. When I'm too old to drive, I'll still have complete mobility as the truck will drive me where I need to go. In fact, with the Tesla Network, I can rent it out when I don't need it and live on the income! Damn, this is sounding better and better! How about renting it out from day one and it paying for itself?
How about if Tesla adds Robo-Plowing capability with short-range radar detection of the plow corners, curbs, road edges, and parked or abandoned cars buried in snowbanks and invisible through heavy snowfall. They currently have a forward looking radar as part of their sensor suite. How about streets and roads actually plowed full width all winter long without damaging either curbs or your plow? So while I'm warm in bed my Cybertruck Robo-Plow can be doing a plowing route earning me money while I sleep! Sounds like two or three Robo-Plows in my future, but I'll wait until the first one's working.
So if the body lasts a million miles, what if it lasts two or three million? Rebuild the motors (change bearings) each million, possibly replace the battery pack. And when it eventually is retired, totally recycle the body and motors and batteries. Of course the batteries could be used in stationary storage (Powerwall, Powerpack, and Megapacks) for another few decades before being recycled.
This is revolutionary. Really totally minimizing lifetime embedded energy. Able to be totally run on renewable, sustainable energy. No designed obsolescence. This is a first in automotive history. I salute you and your team, Elon Musk!

ColMosby
ColMosby

I'm astounded at the ignorance of these "experts." "Battery day" is a loser - Tesla's claim of a 1 million mile battery has already been eclipsed by a competiting Chinese battery company, which is making deals with Tesla's competitors for a 1.25 million mile battery. Tesl's "leading technology" is leading no more : Tesla's vehicles are getting clobbered , botht ehhigh end by the upcoming Lucid Air, which beats the pants off of Tesla's premier $100,000 plus "long raange" model, which gets 125 miles driving range LESS than the Lucid Air (at 527 miles) , and gets bested by a fats charging capability of real world 300 miles per 20 minutes. The Lucid Air is also a massively more attractive vehicle than anything Tesla is putting on the road and the interior is actually luxurious with remarkable reclining rear seats. It aklso has steller performance and a higher top speed than any Tesla. It is the EV that Tesla should have built, rather than the one they sell, which aims for high profits fro Elon Musk. At the lower end, Tesla's vehicles are likewise getting bested by new EVs, XPENG P7 being the most superior to Tesla's snub nosed Model 3. You would think that an auto stock analyst would be aware of the massive competition that has already arrived and the enormous number of EVs that will show up in the next few years, making Tesla's current monopolistic situation a fadingmemory. The Lucid Air's impressive drivetrain technology is 20% more efficinet than Tesla's, and its battery placement allows for far superior passenger comfort. No sane person would ever buy a high dollar Tesla when they can own a Lucid Air. More bad news - Lucid has a protoype SUV in testing and will also build low priced EVs and also pickup trucks. Tesla shareholders better brace themselves for a big drop when the near sighted sytock market realizes just how inferior Tesla's vehicles have become.

natebrownohio
natebrownohio

Congrats, great interview!

RossTessien
RossTessien

Rob, Tesla cars already last as long as 2 ICE cars, longer than 12 years. Offering 12 year financing seems bad at first, but, it allows someone who can only afford a Civic to buy a Model Y. Y is going to sell like hotcakes when Tesla financing offers 12 year terms

mickeyrosa
mickeyrosa

Rob, do you own and drive a Tesla? You don't quite seem to get the ownership experience. When Cramer asked about a 10-12 hour battery, you could have shot back, can you hold your bladder that long? And told him that every time you drive you start off with a full charge, saving scores of trips to the gas station every year. For the one or two times a year you take a long trip over say 300 miles, you might need to charge for 20 minutes at each Supercharger.

Ok, some people don't have a garage to charge in. But by allowing owners of chargers to collect fees, Tesla's new destination charger program should fix that.

Speaking for myself, 12 hours in a Prius and I'm done. 20 hours in a Tesla is about the same, because of the enforced breaks, quieter cabin, and the ease of driving using Autopilot.

As for the Cybertruck, that's a compelling vehicle because of its ding- and scrape-proof stainless steel body, and its phenomenal performance. Why does Cramer love his F350? He said he should have gotten the diesel, presumably because it has more power and gets better mileage. The Cybertruck is better in every way: greater in torque, cheaper to buy, far cheaper to operate, with all the cool entertainment features of the other Teslas, not to mention over-the-air updates. It's also a great vehicle for camping, with 220 and 120v outlets good for an induction burner, tools, or other electronics; and a huge lockable and climate-controlled vault for storage and sleeping. The weird exoskeleton look will grow on you, because the car will last a lifetime!

Plus, Teslas have much lower carbon emissions. Finance guys might not care (until they realize it's a huge business opportunity), but some people care about combating climate change.

Cramer likes historical analogies. How about this? https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DXENGLmUQAAcwFQ.png

Both photos are of 5th Avenue in New York City. The top photo, taken Easter 1900, shows one car in a sea of horses-drawn carriages. The bottom, exactly 13 years later, shows the one carriage in a sea of cars. ICE cars today are like horses in the early 1900's.

A share in Tesla is also betting on autonomy and energy storage as a business. Betting that autonomy can't be done, with Elon's engineers, seems like a very bad bet in the long run. When autonomy arrives, that will create tremendous value and change everyone's lives. And your Tesla will appreciate in value.

There are big opportunities in pod cars and electric bikes, useful for autonomous deliveries and ultimately very efficient. They'd be so efficient that they'd practically eliminate the demand for tunnels, at least on Earth.

There are additional x-factors. A super octovalve could reduce typical home heating, cooling, refrigeration, and hot water energy usage 50% or more. And Tesla insurance could revolutionize the business because they will have the data to tell who is a bad risk and either charge accordingly or better yet alter behavior on the spot, and they'll design their vehicles for lower repair costs.

These businesses -- energy storage, HVAC, insurance -- are worth way more than a trillion dollars. Automotive isn't even the biggest, but that's all that analysts seem to value.

TonyCyber
TonyCyber

It is not just about wealth generation, superior automobile performance or disruptive technology. Sure these things matter. But with global warming concerns still top of mind (despite Covid), it is surprising virtually all Tesla commentators forget to highlight one of the most important reasons why so many consumers are so into Tesla; it is that Tesla is totally committed to transitioning us to sustainable energy. By making the best EVs, and solar generation, storage and distribution more affordable, Tesla allows so many more of us to jump on board and make a real difference to global warming. Tesla is a positive and uplifting story which increasingly will have a material impact on our lives. Being part of the conversation is not enough, we want to be part of the Tesla story too. Everybody likes a winner.

PS403547
PS403547

Great interview, I wish they talked for another 2 hours.
I would love to see Jim do a commentary on Rob's thesis!

jwillis
jwillis

This was an Amazing interview. Loved the ongoing animosity confession of Cramer, he's just blunt.. Elon is not a fan of Cramer and the feeling is mutual. But he loves Tesla stock. This really builds a case for "Cramer is not an Elon Fan boy". - Examining (what would happen if Elon got bored and Left) was especially insightful. You made a great case for the Management that has more or less brought Elon down to Earth and brought predictability to the company. SP500 inclusion.. Cramer Torpedoed that as a Nuthing burger and gave a great Tip it might leave a wake for people looking to buy. Stock Split .. terrific that you both didn't dwell on that, acknowledged the day traders.. slightly and focused on the Long Term investors. Props! for his congratulations to your Bull case "Thesis".. that was a great presentation.

I keep re-watching this video over and over.

It's Stuff Full of a Very good Very in-depth conversation.. and comes off as Genuine. I have no doubt you had talking points, but Cramer got to roam free and momentarily "stump" Rob for a micro-second from time to time.. that was very real. These guys really play the opposite types of investor.. the idealist young investor / and the realist older investor who more often than not says.. "Show me the Numbers".

Cramer brought his Honeywell and IBM and Univac experiences, his college day interviewing Steve Balmer and difficulty in placing Tesla as not a common stock. Those resonated so well with me. He's been around.. he's an uncommon older person who can examine his assumptions.. even After he's been insulted in Public.. curmudgeonly say.. 'Okay this is something Special'.

I "Loved" Cramer challenging Rob with the proposition.. what if Elon doesn't present what the market wants to hear on Battery Day.. something "Business based.. a plan forward to greater Profits".. and gets lost in the Nerdy weeds explaining and getting excited about esoteric "technology".. so very true. Elon is a Nerd.. he's an expert.. he doesn't relate well to people purely seeking profit.

Rob seemed "taken a back" like.. What?

His recovery was golden though.

Just look at "How Much they Could grow.." its the setup.. its look at everything Elon is not talking about.. its everything else. The Potential is 50% growth per year for a Decade with no end in sight. There are no competitors in their class. All the other EV makers are making $100,000 cars in ones and twos. Elon is making $40,000 cars and delivering half a million cars per year. It's like Rob can't see that other people can't see what's right in front of them.

Cramer gets both sides.. the old investor and the young investor.. and the people on twitter who "wish" the world would work the way they want. I think I'm a Cramer fan boy now.

Cramer seemed to pity the Short sellers who keep changing the goal posts hoping for a win. He said they would have to cash out at a higher price.

The Rob Baron interview criticism that Cramer took.. and then fired back.. "They Aren't Selling" what other Pump and Dump scheme do you see where they "Don't Sell".

Cramer (did) leave open the possibility.. the very real possibility.. that even Tesla might not be able to stand against another Covid shutdown wave.. and then it would be a good time to take some profits off the table. But Rob didn't budget an inch.

My opinion is in that event.. if the macro environment gets that bad for Tesla they can simply slow down construction on their plants and "right size" for demand. But the personal value proposition to (any) car or truck buyer will still favor (the cheaper car or truck).. people don't get Teslas are cheaper when buying.. and over their life time.. cheaper fuel costs (electricity is cheaper than oil products).. cheaper repairs (only two things can go wrong, motor and battery.. no transmission) and repair diagnostics can be done for the most part "over the air".. not stuck at a dealership. They also have potentially a longer life than any oil powered car, and second lives as new raw production materials or robotaxis.. or used vehicles in people driven ride hail businesses. Oil cars get used up, break down.. have thousands of parts that wear out and fail due to design flaws, structural fatigue and parts availability.

I have to say Rob's Prediction about Battery day when grilled by Cramer was very good.

Rob predicted Maxwell play will be addressed, but the most important thing will be the "Plan to Scale" total battery production and by proxy the total number of cars produced per year. That's Rob trying to think like an old investor, what's the "Business Plan.." to growth and profits.

Cramer then parried and went on the attack.. how will they increase the range? He called it, "how long will the battery last per day.." which people think about it like a cell phone battery. I laughed but got to hand it to him.. it is a bit more intuitive.

Rob dodged that question solidly.

Rob addressed the lifespan of the battery instead.. a bit off target. (I think) Rob said solidly "It's good enough today" and the overall lifespan is where they have room for improvement. But its complicated because they are trying to improve in so many other aspects of using batteries for energy.

I think I agree with Rob, "range" or "how long per day" is no longer what people worry about, (Tesla Owners don't worry about it), once you get used to driving a Tesla range turns out to really be not a concern. Your car is "filled up" every night at home without going to any gas station or Telsa Superchargers. Tesla Superchargers are used once a year for most people on the family vacation.. its not a big deal. Most people don't run their Tesla down in a single day.. they have more than enough range today.