Tesla Q3 Earnings Preview

Rob Maurer

Tesla reports earnings on Wednesday, October 21, after market close and will host an investor call at 2:30 p.m. Pacific Time / 5:30 p.m. Eastern Time / 9:30 p.m. UTC. 

For a thorough breakdown of what to expect ahead of earnings, see the included video. Below, you can find estimates from Tesla Daily's Rob Maurer, as well the Wall Street consensus estimates.

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Maurer is forecasting total revenue of $8.45B and GAAP earnings per share of $0.29, up 34% and 81% to last year, respectively. Other areas of focus are likely to include Tesla's automative gross margin (excluding credits) and the impact of stock-based compensation.

Automotive gross margin excluding credits took a hit in Tesla's second quarter as Tesla was impacted by coronavirus-related production shutdowns in the US and China, falling to 18.7% from 20.0% in Q1. With all-time highs in production and deliveries in Q3, the quarterly results will give investors better visibility into Tesla's current margin profile.

As for stock-based compensation, Elon Musk's compensation plan is likely to have a significant impact on the quarter as Tesla may deem additional plan milestones as likely to be achieved. Stock-based compensation reduces GAAP net income and earnings per share to account for the dilution of additional stock being created, but it is not a cash cost to the company. For Q3, investors should expect a larger difference between GAAP earnings and non-GAAP earnings, which excludes stock-based compensation.

For more on Tesla's earnings, be sure to follow Tesla Daily on The Street.

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Disclosure: Rob Maurer is long TSLA stock and derivatives.