The Tech Investor's Guide to 2009
More Clouds to Form
Cloud services, which offer computer power and storage via the Internet, will make their mark in 2009 as users struggle with
.
Even the
Department of Defense
has
cloud technology, which is championed by the likes of
Hewlett-Packard
(HPQ) - Get Report
and
(GOOG) - Get Report
.
Storage specialist
EMC
(EMC)
also is
, as are
IBM
(IBM) - Get Report
,
Sun Microsystems
(JAVA)
, and
Microsoft
(MSFT) - Get Report
, which recently unveiled a cloud-based version of Windows.
However, cloud computing is not without its challenges, and was recently cited by
Cisco
(CSCO) - Get Report
as one of security professionals' biggest headaches.
Outages, such as those suffered by
Amazon's
(AMZN) - Get Report
S3 offering, also have focused attention on the reliability of cloud services, not to mention negative comments from detractors such as Oracle's
. The technology will nonetheless be a big part of 2009.
H-P to Blaze a Trail
Few, if any, tech companies will emerge from the economic crisis unscathed, although H-P is blazing something of a trail for others to follow.
The company
beat
Wall Street's revenue estimates in its recent fourth-quarter results, largely thanks to its booming services business.
H-P, which has $10.3 billion in cash, also is earning a reputation for
and expects to shave $1 billion off its expenses through its ongoing integration of services giant
EDS
.
"Though macroeconomic conditions are likely to remain very challenging, we believe HP will effectively manage expenses, expand operating margins and drive EPS in Fiscal 09," wrote
R.W. Baird
analyst Jayson Noland, in a note. "We continue to recommend HP as a diversified, well-positioned player with attainable cost cutting improvements through F'09."
With up to 70% of its revenue coming from overseas, H-P also has a cushion against the weakening U.S. economy and derives much of its profit from "recurring revenue businesses" such as printing and services.
This can only bode well for 2009.
Security Software to Surge
With tech stocks heading south, security software should at least offer some upside in 2009.
Criminal activity, particularly identity theft, is expected to surge as the economic slowdown continues, which could leave firms such as
McAfee
(MFE)
.
McAfee and firms such as
Symantec
(SYMC) - Get Report
also may
from heightened oversight of the financial sector, which is likely to require additional
.
With Microsoft even planning to offer
free consumer security software
in the second half of 2009, security will certainly remain high profile throughout 2009.
Small Will Be Beautiful
With the broader PC market
tanking
, netbooks, or mini-laptops, will be a
hot
technology in 2009.
Technology analyst firm
IDC
, for example, expects portable computer shipments to grow by 15.2% next year, while forecasting a decline of 6.7% in desktop PCs. According to
NPD Group
, less than 1 million netbooks were shipped in 2007, although this figure will rise to 14 million by the end of 2008.
Companies such as H-P and
Asus
have
their netbook efforts during recent months, and even
is said to be preparing a $599
of the
.
If Apple does indeed throw its weight behind netbooks, then it will add yet more momentum to an already booming part of the tech sector.
Yahoo! Yields to Change
After
Yahoo!'s
(YHOO)
board rejected a
from Microsoft to acquire the company,
has mounted on the
troubled
Internet giant to revisit a Microsoft deal, which may happen in 2009.
In a
to the company's board earlier this month,
Ivory Investment Management
proposed a deal in which Microsoft would acquire Yahoo!'s search engine and Yahoo! would retain 80% of revenue generated by search queries on its own site.
Analysts had already identified the benefits of a Yahoo!-Microsoft partnership. "A deal would lock-in high guaranteed annual revenues and EBITDA for Yahoo, and re-focus it on its long-term opportunity in display
advertising and content," wrote
Jefferies & Co.
analyst Yourself Squalid, in a Dec. 2 note.
Yahoo!'s stock is trading around $13, close to its five-year lows, and a far cry from Microsoft's offer of $33 a share. In a clear indication of investor sentiment, Yahoo! shares typically rise whenever talk of a Microsoft deal is resurrected.
There is, however, a good chance that change will happen when Yahoo! appoints a replacement for former CEO
, who bitterly opposed Microsoft's takeover. Whether this resurrects the original Microsoft deal remains to be seen, although Yahoo! certainly has to do something to boost its share price.
Apple to Withstand Tech Crunch
Whether it is the
, the firm's share price, or Steve Jobs'
of geeky tech shows, everything
Apple
(AAPL) - Get Report
does still will come under the microscope in 2009.
Despite
, however, the tech bellwether should continue to withstand the weakening economy.
Although smartphone sales are slowing, Apple is actually
from competitors such as
Nokia
(NOK) - Get Report
.
Technology analyst firm
Gartner
recently reported that Apple's smartphone sales grew more than 327% year over year, compared with Nokia's 3% decline.
Apple, which shipped 6.9 million iPhones during its recent
, also has more than $24 billion in cash, which should help ease its journey through the coming months.
In addition to its
AT&T
(ATT)
-backed iPhone business, Apple also has a solid revenue stream in iTunes and its 65 million-plus customers. That's one hell of an installed base.
"The combination of solid fundamentals, a sound balance sheet and a tailwind from falling commodity prices should help Apple to generate superior cash flow in fiscal 2009 and allow Apple to outperform its peers," wrote
Pacific Crest
analyst Andy Hargreaves, in a recent note.
Outsourcing to Remain Strong
Despite recent events in
, outsourcing remains a viable proposition for U.S. firms wrestling with shrinking IT budgets.
"The offshore value proposition is alive and well, as IT buyers indicate that moving work offshore is a proven way to lower systems cost in a tough environment," explained
Citigroup Global Markets
analyst Ashwin Shirvaikar, in a recent note.
Technology analyst firm
Forrester
agrees that outsourcing will grow in 2009, albeit at a modest rate. After growing 4.2% in 2008, outsourcing will grow 5% and 4.5%, respectively, in the next two years, it says.
"Sellers of communications equipment, software, and IT consulting and outsourcing services will see one or two quarters of declining revenues, but on average will still grow modestly in 2009," wrote Forrester analyst Andrew Bartels, in a recent note.
