Smartphone Showdown: Your Fourth-Quarter Cheat Sheet
NEW YORK (
) -- It's game time. The fourth quarter is just ahead, and phonemakers and telcos are putting together their
for the big holiday showdown.
Nowhere is the action hotter than among smartphones, as
Apple
(AAPL) - Get Report
,
Research In Motion
(RIMM)
,
Nokia
(NOK) - Get Report
,
Palm
(PALM)
and
Motorola
(MOT)
vie for a piece of this growing market segment. And you can't forget the other players with a lot at stake like
(GOOG) - Get Report
,
AT&T
(T) - Get Report
,
Verizon
(VZ) - Get Report
,
Sprint
(S) - Get Report
and
Deutsche Telekom's
(DT) - Get Report
T-Mobile
unit.
For the industry, the fourth quarter is a time to shape up or shake out.
More phones get sold in the fourth quarter than any other time of the year. "Ordinarily, the fourth quarter accounts for 29% of a year's sales," says CCS Insight analyst Ben Wood. At least that was true up until last year when the fourth quarter was about 25% of the total because of the financial crisis, according to Wood.
Smartphone Holiday Preview
If consumers get in the spirit, the coming months could help revive some fallen favorites like Motorola and Palm. But if frugality is still the sentiment of the season, then all players could feel the squeeze, perhaps some more painfully than others.
"Competitive levels are as high as I have ever seen them in the cell-phone space," says Wood. And if demand is low, there will be "tremendous downwards pressure on margins."
So here's how the field looks today:
Apple is riding its iPhone horse for a third go-round in this race. With the old version selling for $99 and the 3GS released in June, Apple's iPhone is still considered the phone to beat.
Research In Motion will feature its new BlackBerries, including the Storm 2, at Verizon. The new version is expected to be an improvement on the original touchscreen BlackBerry, which confounded users and critics with its less-than-perfect clickable screen.
Palm has the Pre and soon the Pixi -- a smaller, cheaper smartphone -- coming to Sprint.
Motorola has its Google Android Cliq at T-Mobile and the upcoming "Sholes" going to Verizon.
Nokia has had little luck gaining any traction in the U.S. without a carrier partner. And the big Finnish phone show has lagged the pack in touchscreen trends. But a new offering, the $650 N900, could at least turn some heads next month.
The favorites in this race are Apple's iPhone and RIM's BlackBerry.
If RIM has improved the Storm 2 to the satisfaction of its critics, No. 1 telco Verizon could have a blockbuster on its hands.
Meanwhile, Apple's iPhone, with it household name recognition, has entered what could be called the gifting category -- a device so nice, who would need to ask twice.
Palm would be one of the long-odds bets. If the Pixi arrives early enough and sells for less than $100 with an economical calling and data plan to match, it could be a comer this season.
Palm Pixi |
And after being left for dead last year, Motorola could return to be a real spoiler in the fourth quarter. With its Treo and
Microsoft
(MSFT) - Get Report
Windows
legacy thrown aside
, Motorola is pushing ahead with Google's Android software on just two phones. The first is Cliq at T-Mobile, or Dext, as it will be known overseas. The second is dubbed Sholes and is headed to Verizon.
If the Sholes lives up to expectations, it could be the best challenger yet to the iPhone. Motorola's sleek metal design, the big touchscreen, an ample-sized physical keyboard and 5-megapixel camera, running on the Web-friendly Android would give Verizon customers a possible cure to iPhone envy.
Apple will no doubt continue to shine in another fourth quarter, but other players have at least a glimmer of hope.
--
Written by Scott Moritz in New York
.
