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Sirius XM

(SIRI) - Get Free Report

reports first-quarter earnings early on Tuesday, and now that the company is profitable, investors are wondering whether CEO Mel Karmazin and his team will start giving back some of its hard-earned cash.

After the company's first

price hike

in its history earlier this year, as well as lower operating expenses, Sirius may have approximately $3 billion in


over the next few years, according to Maxim Group analyst John Tinker in a research report. But how it gets distributed is up in the air due to Liberty Media's ownership stake.

Once thought to be near bankruptcy following the merger with

XM Satellite Radio

and several high-priced talent acquisitions like

Howard Stern

, Oprah Winfrey, Martha Stewart and others, Karmazin and his team have cut debt, and free-cash-flow is expected to rise 73% year-over-year to $719 million, noted Maxim Group's Tinker.

Tinker believes Sirius will update investors on returning capital to shareholders, paying down debt or acquisitions, but "would not be surprised if

Sirius downplayed the timing of the buyback as they may not want to help

Liberty Media


increase its 40% holding without paying up." He rates Sirius shares "buy" with a $3.20 price target.

John Malone and Liberty Media own 40% of Sirius after Malone's Liberty Media loaned Sirius $530 million in 2009 to essentially bail out the company.

Earnings from


(F) - Get Free Report

have continued to




recently said its

first-quarter net income

more than quadrupled year-over-year, which bodes well for Sirius' cash flow, as new car sales continue to be strong.

Customers have weathered the monthly price increase well, and new car sales are coming in slightly higher than 14 million, which Wunderlich Securities analyst Matthew Harrigan believes could suggest better-than-expected subscriber guidance, currently around 1.3 million. "We still believe SIRI has a superior pipe into the car, especially with non-music content dominance and the augmented Lynx radio capabilities," Harrigan wrote in his research note. He rates Sirius "hold" with a $2 price target.

Now that Sirius is generating significant amounts of free cash, it remains to be seen whether Malone and Liberty Media can exert significant pressure and get Sirius to return some of its excess cash to shareholders.

According to analysts polled by

Thomson Reuters

, Sirius is expected to report earnings of 2 cents a share on $803.81 million in revenue. That's up from the first-quarter of 2011, when it earned a penny on $723.84 million in revenue.

Shares of Sirius are higher in Monday trading, up 2.26% to $2.26.

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Written by Chris Ciaccia in New York

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