iPad Sales Could Boost Apple Stock

Apple stock could rise 3 percent above Trefis' $294 estimate for the stock if 10 million iPads are sold this year.
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By Trefis.com



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recently announced that it sold 1 million iPads within the first 28 days after the April 3, 2010 launch of the device in the U.S.

In comparison, it took 74 days for Apple to sell 1 million iPhones in 2007 and


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sold only about 1 million Kindle e-reader devices in total throughout all of 2009.

Furthermore, the new iPad 3G is off to a good start, with an estimated 300,000 units sold over the weekend of April 30. Based on the strong demand for the iPad thus far and the fact that the holiday season for 2010 could trigger an even bigger response,

iPad unit sales

may exceed our forecast of 4 million iPads sold in 2010.

We estimate that the iPad constitutes 4% of the

$294 Trefis price estimate for Apple's stock

and that there could be an additional 3% upside to our Apple estimate if iPad unit sales were to exceed our forecast by reaching as high as 10 million units by the end of 2010.

Even if Apple were to sell 10 million iPads in 2010 and about 24 million by the end of forecast period, our Apple estimate would not exceed $310.

iPad Sales Expected to Reach 4 Million Units in 2010

We currently forecast that iPad sales will reach 4 million units sold in 2010. In comparison, we forecast that Amazon will sell only 2 million Kindles in 2010. Apple sold about 3.7 million iPhones in 2007 after launching the device in June of that year and it subsequently sold nearly 14 million iPhones during 2008.

Given the strong performance of iPad sales and the past performance of iPhone sales, you can modify our forecast above to see how Apple's stock could be impacted if iPad sales were to exceed our forecasts.

Factors Driving Higher iPad Demand

We believe there are a few leading factors that will drive demand for the iPad:

  • iPad's Attractive Design with Multi-Touch and ColorThe iPad is designed to be an ultra-thin and light-weight gadget, handy for people who travel often. iPad's unique multi-touch screen-based user interface attracts users to use it as a an improved reading experience for books, magazines and websites. This experience is considered better compared to the smaller devices like the iPhone and iPod Touch, as well as black and white alternatives like the Kindle.
  • Apps and eBooks Contributing to the SuccessTo date, 12 million iPad apps along with over 1.5 million eBooks from Apple's app store have been downloaded. iPad's larger screen compared to the iPhone gives developers an opportunity to provide more features and improve the graphics of an application. The larger screen also encourages apps for the iPad that wouldn't otherwise be available for the iPhone. The availability of a wide-range of entertainment and productivity apps is an important driver of demand for the iPad.
  • Holiday Season Boost and International SalesConsumer electronics sales typically see a boost during the U.S. holiday season and we expect strong demand for the iPad amongst holiday shoppers. Furthermore, Apple is moving quickly to distribute the iPad internationally and this will be an important factor for why iPad sales in 2010 could continue outperform the past performance of iPhone sales.

For additional analysis and forecasts, here is

our complete model for Apple's stock.


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