Fitbit, which went public in late June, reported third-quarter results after-hours Monday that revealed a 168% year-over-year increase in revenue to $409.3 million, with non-GAAP net income of 24 cents per share, significantly better than the 10 cents per share analysts were expecting.
The San Francisco-based Fitbit said it expects to earn between 92 cents to 96 cents per share on revenue of $1.77 billion to $1.8 billion for the full year, up from its previous guidance of 69 cents to 77 cents per share on revenue of $1.6 billion to $1.7 billion. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect the company to earn 84 cents a share on $1.74 billion in sales.
While Fitbit's numbers were strong and it has proven to remain a dominant player in the fitness tracker industry, owning nearly 90% of the market, shares are dropping after the company announced it would raise additional money. Fitbit said it will offer up to 7 million more shares, with certain stockholders planning to sell 14 million shares.
Fitbit shares were plunging just after the opening bell Tuesday, with shares down 6.4% at $38.19, about in the middle of the stock's 52-week range of $29.50 to $51.90. FIT stock is up 37.3% since its initial offering, with the past month drawing about 9.3% in gains.
Following the results, Wall Street analysts were generally positive on FIT stock, with several noting anticipated volatility in the short-term. Here's what they had to say:
Sterne Agee analyst Rob Cihra (Neutral, $45 PT)
"FIT's strong Q3 revenue of $409mil (+168%Y/Y) on 4.8mil units (+105%Y/Y) up-sided consensus by +14%, yet that was still not likely enough, given we think expectations were already quite elevated, compounded by the company now filing to sell a new 7mil shares (w/ 14mil more coming into the float via secondary from stockholders). We raise our 2016E revenue and EPS estimates to $2.6B (+41%Y/Y) and $1.28 from $2.4B/$1.07, and remain optimistic on FIT's lead in the connected consumer wearables market, yet also remain Neutral on the stock as we continue to think it prices in much of today's positive momentum already. Estimates: Q4 $$0.29; '15 $$1.01; '16 $$1.28."
Leerink analyst Steve Wardell (Outperform, $81 PT)
"A powerful growth story posts Street-beating results. Fitness tracker industry-leader FIT beat on top and bottom lines and gross margins for the 3Q, taking investor concerns about gross margins off the table. The company is pressing its formidable advantage and seems to be taking share in a fast-growing market. FIT also announced a follow-on offering. There appears to be some "sell the news" sentiment in the reaction of the stock to the beat and the offering, but we don't see anything to worry us fundamentally. We reiterate our Outperform rating and raise our Price Target to $81 from $79 based on higher NTM revenues."
Pacific Crest Securities analyst Brad Erickson (Overweight, $47 PT)
"Fitbit put up an impressive beat and raise, but a curiously timed follow-on offering may cause some near-term volatility. Q4 sell-through is the biggest near-term determinant for FIT. We continue to see upside to $47 given strong checks, margin flow-through and continued corporate wellness traction, which is underappreciated. ... We were also particularly encouraged by incremental margin flowing through as Fitbit reported 30 basis points of gross-margin upside in the quarter versus our estimate and the Q4 guidance implied roughly 60 basis points. Dominance of corporate wellness on full display."
FBN Securities analyst Shebly Seyrafi (Outperform, $50 PT)
"The company reported a very strong FQ3 revenue and EPS beat with revenue 17% above consensus and EPS 140% above consensus, and it is guiding strongly for a strong FQ4 with revenue expected to be up 75-84% Y/Y (even higher at CC and 7-12% above consensus) and NG EPS of $.20-25 (generally above consensus of .20). Still, the stock is looking to exhibit weakness today on news that FIT will have a 7M (3% of shares outstanding) follow-on, certain shareholders of Class A stock will sell 14-17.15M shares, and FIT's underwriters have agreed to release from lockup 2.3 shares held by FIT's employees and consultants. We regard the latter as relatively small in the big picture as there will be minimal dilution (3%) while the 14M-17.15M and 2.3M sales also are relative small (5-7% and 1% of shares, respectively)."
This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author held no positions in the stocks mentioned.