NEW YORK (
Atom processors are being widely used in netbooks and tablet PCs, which justifies the company's growing market share. Further ahead, we expect Atom's market share to grow as it enters the smartphone and tablet form factors. Trefis also expects Atom's share to benefit from a new range of Atom-based devices such as Google TV, car infotainment systems, IP phones, printers, energy management systems.
Intel's Atom competes with
Advanced Micro Devices'
While Trefis currently expects Atom's share to increase and reach 20% levels by 2013, Trefis members predict a level of 28%, translating to a slight upside of 2% to 3%. This indicates that even if Atom's share were to double in the coming years, its contribution to Intel's stock would be minimal.
Trefis has a
, about 22% above the current market price of $21.58.
Rising Netbook Sales Will Boost Atom's Share
Atom processors were used in nearly all the roughly 11 million and 27 million netbooks shipped in 2008 and 2009, respectively. iSuppli, a market research firm, estimates that netbook shipments will grow to over 58 million by 2014. This presents a strong growth prospective for Intel's atom as it currently dominates this segment.
Smartphones and Tablets -- The Next Growth Market
Smartphones represent one of the fastest-growing segments in consumer electronics. Intel's recent partnership with
in developing Meego OS and its entry into making processors for Android-based smartphones are two very strategic moves from Intel, which can boost its Atom market share.
The tablet market too has grown exponentially after the successful launch of
iPad and many major OEMs are coming up with new tablet devices. According to IDC, the tablet market will grow to around 46 million shipments in 2014, which benefits Intel as many new tablets from
will feature Atom.
In addition, better silicon manufacturing processes as compared to competitors will give Intel a significant edge.
Atom Is Only 2% of Intel Stock
Since Atom processors account for only around 2% of Intel's stock based on our estimates, any significant increase in Atom share won't have a significant impact on the stock for the time being. The Trefis community predicts that Atom's market share will increase from almost 17 % in 2010 to 28% by 2013, compared to the baseline Trefis estimate of an increase from under 14% to 20% during the same period. The member estimates imply a small upside of about 2% to the Trefis price estimate for Intel's stock.
Trefis' complete analysis for Intel's stock is
Trefis members constitute more than tens of thousands of users of the Trefis platform, inclusive of investors, financial analysts, and business professionals who use the Trefis platform to create their own models and price estimates.
This commentary comes from an independent investor or market observer as part of TheStreet guest contributor program. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of TheStreet or its management.