Apple's iPhone Pricing Could Boost Stock

Here's how higher Apple iPhone pricing and market share could result in 9% upside to Trefis estimates by 2016.
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Higher expectations for Apple's (AAPL) - Get Report iPhone pricing and market share could result in 9% upside to the $337 Trefis price estimate for Apple's stock. The Trefis price estimate for Apple currently represents about a 35% premium to the market price of $253.

Trefis members have created forecasts for two key drivers of Apple's stock over the last week: (1)

iPhone Pricing

and (2)

iPhone's Market Share in Mobile Phones.

The iPhone constitutes around 50% of the $337 Trefis price estimate for Apple's stock.

The member forecasts suggest that iPhone pricing and market share in mobile phones will trend above the estimates of the team of analysts at Trefis. Higher Apple iPhone market share could come at the expense of Apple's competitors such as

Motorola

(MOT)

,

Research in Motion

(NASDAQ:RIMM) and

Nokia

(NOK) - Get Report

. Below are charts showing recent estimates created by Trefis members for the two drivers in detail. 1.

iPhone Pricing

The average of Trefis member forecasts for iPhone Pricing indicate a decrease from $611 in 2010 to around $469 by 2016, compared to the baseline Trefis estimate of a decrease from $593 in 2010 to around $413 by the end of the Trefis forecast period. The member estimates imply an upside of 6% to the Trefis price estimate for Apple's stock. In the past, iPhone Pricing decreased from $831 in 2007 to $593 in 2009.

Disagree? You can drag the forecast trend line above to express your own view, and see the sensitivity of Apple's stock to iPhone pricing.

Our

complete analysis for iPhone Pricing is here.

2.

iPhone's Market Share in Mobile Phones

The average of Trefis member forecasts for iPhone's Market Share in Mobile Phones indicate an increase from 4% in 2010 to 11.5% by 2016, compared to the baseline Trefis estimate of an increase from 3% in 2010 to around 11% by the end of the Trefis forecast period. The member estimates imply an upside of 3% to the Trefis price estimate for Apple's stock. In the past, iPhone's market share in mobile phones has increased from 0.3% in 2007 to 2% in 2009.

Disagree? You can drag the forecast trend-line above to express your own view, and see the sensitivity of Apple's stock to iPhone's Market Share in Mobile Phones.

Our

complete analysis for Apple's stock is here.

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is a financial community structured around trends, forecasts and insights related to some of the most popular stocks in the U.S.