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Agile Stumbles After Missing Estimates

The company's poor quarter seems to have put a kink in other supply-chain software shares.

Updated from Feb. 14

Shares of supply-chain software companies fell Friday after

Agile Software


missed estimates a day earlier.

San Jose, Calif.-based Agile dragged down

i2 Technologies




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after Agile CEO and Chairman Bryan Stolle released earnings for the third quarter Thursday and bluntly declared, "What a crappy year it was." Other business-to-business companies such as



, whose plan to acquire Agile last year collapsed, and

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also fell in recent trading.

C.E. Unterberg Towbin analyst Catherine Moore lowered her rating on Agile to neutral from buy Friday morning. "We had hoped for an upside surprise in revenues to justify the stock's multiple of 4X trailing sales," Moore said in a note. "We fear that Agile may have lost slight share this last quarter." Her firm hasn't done any investment banking for Agile.

Agile shares plummeted $1.78, or 13.7%, to $11.23 in recent trading. Shares of i2 Technologies, which makes software applications that help manufacturers build products more efficiently, fell 43 cents, or 6.9%, to $5.77. Shares of Manugistics fell 91 cents, or 5.4%, to $6.09.

Ariba, whose plan to buy Agile last year collapsed after Ariba shares lost 80% of their value, fell 26 cents, or 5.8%, to $4.26. FreeMarkets fell 47 cents, or 2.1%, to $21.49 in recent trading.

But embattled business-to-business competitor

Commerce One


avoided the selloff, rising 8 cents, or 4.2%, to $1.97.

After markets closed Thursday, Agile, which makes manufacturing and supply-chain software, lost $6.3 million, or 13 cents a share, in the third quarter of 2002, which ended Jan. 31. That compares with a net loss of $12.6 million, or 27 cents a share, in the third quarter of fiscal year 2001. In the second quarter ended in October, Agile reported a net loss of 9 cents a share, according to both generally accepted accounting principles and on a pro forma basis.

On a pro forma basis, Agile registered a third-quarter loss of 14 cents a share, compared with pro forma net income of 1 cent in the same period a year ago. Analysts expected the company to lose 13 cents a share on a pro forma basis, according to Thomson Financial/First Call. Pro forma net income excludes charges associated with the amortization of deferred stock compensation, the amortization of goodwill and purchased intangible assets, acquired in-process technology and payroll taxes on stock option exercises.

Third-quarter revenue fell 28% from a year ago to $18 million. Revenue also fell sequentially from $21.2 million in the second quarter. Wall Street analysts expected quarterly revenue to come in at $19.7 million.

For the fiscal full year, which ends in April, Agile is expected to lose 41 cents a share on $84.4 million in revenue.

Agile CFO Richard Browne said the company is expected to record a fourth-quarter loss of 10 cents to 15 cents a share. The consensus estimate for fourth-quarter earnings was a loss of 11 cents a share. Browne slightly revised prior revenue guidance for the fiscal full year to the upper range of between $80 million and $85 million. He said the company is comfortable with the current consensus estimate for revenue in fiscal year 2003, which ranges between $105 million and $115 million.

In contrast to Moore's outlook for Agile, other analysts expressed cautious optimism. Jon Ekoniak, senior research analyst at U.S. Bancorp Piper Jaffray, called Agile's forecast for the fourth quarter "aggressive" but said he believes it has some merit. "We also continue to believe that the company leads its market niche with a strong core product (high satisfaction and fast ROI) and customer base," he said in a research note released Friday. Ekoniak rates Agile a market perform, and his firm hasn't done any business with Agile.