A 2020 View of Which Tech Companies Survive

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- The technology sector has been evolving at a rapid pace, especially in the past decade. The companies that have moved to embrace a more social world to reach their customer base have done the best, developing strategies to accommodate a more mobile landscape.

And yet, many tech giants will be rendered obsolete over the next six years. Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (AAPL), and even Samsung will struggle to remain at the top of the tech food-chain, being passed by more innovative companies, according to our research projections.

We base these projections off the level of innovation illustrated by each of these companies over the past five years, the growth of products, market share, and the markets as a whole in which they operate. We combine this with the aptitude and skill shown by the executive team within these companies.

When we look at all these factors we find three companies perfectly positioned to grow into the world's largest tech giants.

Third Largest - Google (GOOG): Google is one of the best-positioned tech companies looking forward six years. Consider how quickly app makers and social media companies are growing. Google has a firm footing in both markets, is a leader for OS across multiple smartphone providers and has the resources on hand to bolster sectors of their business that provide the largest growth opportunities.

Google has one of the best executive teams in the industry, ranking second most innovative on our list of top executive teams. The only downfall for Google is the inability to move quickly enough to adjust to such a rapidly changing industry due to the company's size. If not for Google's colossus-like size, which naturally causes slower reactionary measures, Google would be ranked higher on our list.

Second Largest - Tesla (TSLA): Tesla may be a controversial pick as number two on our list, especially considering the commonly accepted nature of the business. However, when Tesla is broken down to its simplest form, it operates as a technology company.

While the automaker is developing a new wave of cars, TSLA's tech aptitude is second to none. The giga-factories TSLA is creating looks to become the new industry standard (think of these factories as another introduction of the assembly line). As the price of oil rises over the coming years, Tesla's batteries will be in high demand throughout the automotive industry, which will become Tesla's largest growth story going forward.



Tesla's batteries will also warrant demand from companies like Caterpillar ( (CAT)) for its generators, as well as other portable heavy power usage functions across multiple industries. Tesla's executive team ranks third on our list. Elon Musk is a revolutionary, there is no doubt about it.

However, the rest of his executive team trails their peers at the top of this list. Even though we are bearish on Tesla, and have suffered the losses to prove it, Tesla is a force to be reckoned with moving forward.

Largest Tech Player - Facebook (FB): Facebook has the best executive team on our rankings. The innovative nature of Mark Zuckerberg, paired with possibly the best chief operating officer in the tech industry in Sheryl Sandberg, Facebook's executive team is second to none.

While it has grown at an unbelievable rate, Facebook has shown the ability to anticipate the market needs and demands before the arise (a la the late Steve Jobs). FB is becoming one of the most powerful conglomerates in the tech industry both through product creation and their acquisitions. As the tech industry grows more social and mobile, Facebook has been at the forefront of the trend.

While the current valuation may seem slightly overvalued, looking out at 2016 earnings FB is exceedingly cheap at these levels. Granted, it's impossible to predict the future, but Facebook has the track record to prove that going forward it would be less than prudent to bet against them.

The afor-mentioned rankings are based on www.1UpWallStreet.com's proprietary metrics that combine innovation, growth, market share, executive teams, and product metrics on a forward looking basis. These metrics are then placed into our economic-based Growth Supply and Demand Model to determine these rankings.

The lack of innovation, product development, and/or the lack of sector expansion going forward is the rational behind Microsoft, Apple, and Samsung falling from the most powerful tech companies by 2020. The technology sector will continue to develop and evolve at a rapid pace through 2020, and we expect that the market value of each of our top three companies could expand by more than two to three times by 2020, using our models.

The technology sector as a whole will grow exponentially over the coming years, and may illustrate bubble-like environments during the expansion.

At the time of publication the author had a position in FB.

This article represents the opinion of a contributor and not necessarily that of TheStreet or its editorial staff.

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