Friday is here.

The Tariff Stats You Need to Know

If you are a trader with 15 screens on your desk, you have to like the market's fighting spirit this week. The two times Trump has tried to take down his market, stocks have fought back from initial hysteria lows. Last night, for example, Dow futures tanked more than 400 points on the fresh trade actions by Trump. They have since rebounded to down 220 points on Friday. It's the clearest sign yet the market has priced in at least an initial economic hit from a U.S. versus China trade war. But before you get all sweaty from jumping for joy, please do keep some realities in mind. "A 25% increase in tariffs on $150 billion in goods (the $50 billion already proposed plus Trump's additional $100 billion) could block close to 30% of China's $505 billion in exports to the U.S. If China reciprocated at the same dollar amount, the entirety of the U.S.'s $130 billion exports to China would be affected," Bloomberg points out on its nifty terminal. "At that level, tariffs would start to hit the economic aggregates. Based on estimates run through a global econometric model, China's 2020 GDP would be 0.6% lower relative to the baseline of no increase in tariffs." What you need to be thinking about this weekend: how far China is willing to take its fight versus Trump. Does it want to stunt Starbucks (SBUX) growth plans in its country (even though the company is viewed somewhat as a friend)? Does it want to pull a Russia from a few years ago and shut McDonald's (MCD) and Yum! Brands (YUM) Pizza Hut restaurants? Those actions are definitely not priced into the market, but could be if these tensions continue to escalate.

Once Hot Tech Names, the Latest

Respectable rally in the NYSE FANG+ Total Return Index off the late March lows. At 2,480, the index is up about 3% from its lows. It closed above both the 50-day and 100-day moving averages early in the week. Next test of the rally is the 200-day moving average at 2,535.83. Rallies in Tesla (TSLA) and Action Alerts Plus holding Amazon (AMZN) the most evident from among the index.

Jolt Investing Tip of the Day

You know you are becoming an old market wizard when you see the same things happening today as at other key points in the market in years past. With trade war fears rising, interest rates hikes the new normal, inflation lurking and an unpredictable president, the market yahoos have begun to crawl out of the woodwork with crash calls. On at least three occasions this week, I have seen 40% to 50% market crash calls made my seemingly credible people at reputable financial services firms. The motives for these calls often range from wanting to be on TV more (and get paid for it) to spooking the average investor so more sophisticated ones (aka their clients) could get in at lower prices. You want to remember the motives of these folks when seeing their stuff plastered all over the internet. Do not panic. Do not liquidate your entire stock holdings. Do not buy a bomb shelter. Stay disciplined. Feeling nervous? Call your financial adviser to learn what they are seeing in the markets and to discuss if any changes need to be made in how your portfolio is allocated. Now have a lovely weekend (and check back on Saturday morning for the latest from TheStreet). 

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