Don't be too quick to call this a tradable bottom, Jim Cramer cautioned his Mad Money viewers Thursday. There are still plenty of things to be concerned about in this stock market, and that means exercising extra caution in the days ahead.
Thursday's rally may be short-lived, Cramer said, as he outlined the factors that could derail the bull. One of those things is Friday's unemployment number, which has proven in the past to be a lightning rod for panic if the number is too high and interest rates spike.
Second on Cramer's list of worries was President Trump, who has clearly shifted from being pro-business to making good on campaign promises. Trump made the list a second time for his repeated attacks on Amazon (AMZN) , which has sent all of the FANG stocks into a tailspin.
Next up was of course, China. Cramer noted that any additional retaliations on tariffs will certainly be met with more selling.
Finally, Cramer said he's worried about President Trump. Yes, for a third time, only now we're referring to Mexico and NAFTA. The president doesn't have the power to cancel a trade agreement, but he sure can do his best to interrupt it.
For all of these reasons, Cramer said investors need to stay vigilant and use extra caution. Buying into weakness might not be the best course of action over the next few days.
Cramer and the AAP team say that with Amazon in Trump's crosshairs, they've been using the pullback to increase their stake in the e-commerce giant. Find out what they're telling their investment club members and get in on the conversation with a free trial subscription to Action Alerts PLUS.
Executive Decision: Ollie's Bargain Outlet
For his "Executive Decision" segment, Cramer again sat down with Mark Butler, chairman, president and CEO of Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings (OLLI) , the discount retail chain with shares that are up 13% since Cramer last checked in back in December.
Butler boasted that Ollie's has beaten every estimate they've given Wall Street since coming public and the company just completed their biggest year ever. He said becoming a public company has only boosted their exposure with customers and suppliers alike and now that more manufacturers know about Ollie's, more goods are becoming available.
The company's loyalty program, Ollie's Army, now boasts over nine million members and this year the company is adding ranks to the program to offer additional rewards to their most loyal shoppers.
When asked about growth, Butler noted that Ollie's can support 950 locations nationwide, a huge step forward from the 274 locations they currently have in just 22 states.
Finally, when asked about the tailwind from the Toys R Us bankruptcy, Butler noted that it usually takes time for excess inventory to find its way to Ollie's, but the liquidation will certainly be a boon for shoppers looking for great toy bargains.
Executive Decision: PREIT
In his second "Executive Decision" segment, Cramer also sat down with Joseph Coradino, chairman and CEO of PREIT (PEI) , the retail real estate trust with 29 properties and an 8.5% dividend yield. Shares of PREIT are off 16.6% for the year.
Coradino explained that despite the weakness in the retail sector, PREIT has remained ahead of the curve. His company sold over 40% of their portfolio, including 17 malls, and has reinvested in their remaining properties.
While bankruptcies in retail are running rampant, Coradino explained that PREIT is turning them into a tailwind, replacing struggling department stores with better tenants paying higher rents, that also drive more traffic to their properties overall. PREIT is diversifying their portfolio away from apparel, which only accounts for 40%, to more experiential tenants like dining, entertainment and fitness.
Friday Jobs Numbers
Why are the markets so scared of Friday's employment numbers? Cramer said unfortunately, we're in a "good news is bad news situation, where strong employment, which is good for the economy, also means faster interest rate hikes.
Rising interest rates are welcom news for the banks, but for the rest of the economy, it means a gradual slowdown in growth. Nowhere is that more evident than in housing, a sector that's particularly sensitive to interest rates.
But Cramer noted that today, shares of homebuilder Lennar (LEN) popped 1.8% after strong commentary from the company's CEO on its conference call. On the call, management noted that it's the participation rate, not the headline employment number, that really matters to housing.
That's because in a strong labor market, customers have more confidence and that confidence that can more than offset any fears over a quarter-point rise in interest rates. Cramer said if this notion holds up, then we should be buying, not selling, the homebuilders if they fall tomorrow. That is, if it weren't for all of the other reasons to be concerned.
Dissecting the Spotify Listing
Earlier this week, music streaming service Spotify (SPOT) debuted on Wall Street, but not with a typical initial public offering. Instead of the usual IPO process, Spotify opted for a direct listing of their existing shares, a rare deal that Cramer took some time to explain.
Cramer said Spotify worked hard to avoid the Wall Street spotlight. The company didn't have a road show, it barely gave any interviews and it chose not to ring the opening bell the day it listed. Unlike a typical IPO, where the issuance of new shares dilute a company's existing shares, direct deals simply list those existing share and those who choose to sell, sell, as there is no lockup period.
Additionally, since institutional buyers aren't seeded with pre-IPO shares, there's no rush to complete those positions in the aftermarket, thus, no artificial first-day rally.
Spotify shares added 1.92% in after-hours trade Thursday to trade at $146.75.
In this deal, CEO Daniel Ek simply did right by his employees and investors and gave them an easier way to sell their shares.
What's most important to know about the Spotify deal is that the company has 159 million active users and last year grew revenues by 39%. Yet, shares currently trade at 4.2 times revenue, compared to Sirius XM (SIRI) at 4.9 and Netflix (NFLX) at 8.1 times revenue. To put that into perspective, if you gave Spotify the same valuation as Netflix, shares should be trading for $275 a share.
Cramer said he'd be a buyer of Spotify, especially if shares drift any lower.
Over on Real Money, Cramer says that compared with Micron Technology (MU) , the UBS downgrade of Texas Instruments (TXN) seems remarkable. Get more of his insights with a free trial subscription to Real Money.
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