As many of you know, I have been out of Netflix (NFLX - Get Report) and Alphabet (GOOGL - Get Report) for a little while. Admittedly, I took my Netflix off of the table too early, and I usually never do more than rent (GOOGL - Get Report) overnight in either direction. As for Facebook (FB - Get Report) , I'm just not a fan. Never was. Think the leadership is poor.
Amazon (AMZN - Get Report) is different. Yes, I sold Amazon early in this "Tech Wreck." I have also started buying it back small on this discount. The prospects of a trade war will not overtly impact these FANG names as for the most part they have little exposure. Alibaba (BABA - Get Report) is the Amazon (in a way) of China. The President of the United States can, in my opinion, hurt AMZN more than can the President of China.
(Facebook, Amazon and Alphabet are Action Alerts PLUS holdings, which Jim Cramer co-manages as a charitable trust.)
That doesn't mean that I love the stock. My net basis remains well south of here. I understand the risk associated with being long a highly expensive name. I can tolerate that associated risk as long as the name does not approach my breakeven point. Then, I'll carve this name from my book without a hint of remorse. Now I'll tell you why this stock is so dangerous. The slayer of retail, also has the potential to slay your portfolio.
There isn't one. That's right. You, the shareholder take on outsized risk, and Jeff Bezos pays you exactly zero dollars and zero cents as a fellow owner of the business.
Yes, the firm has plenty of assets, and plenty of cash on hand. Total debt has ballooned from $20.4B at the end of Q4 2016 to $44.1B at the end of Q4 2017. Can the firm meet short to medium term obligations? Yes, the Current Ratio stands at 1.04. Strip out inventories you say? For the new kids, that called the Quick Ratio, and it's an item that you must understand. Hmm, suddenly a much uglier 0.7 appears on the screen. Would one invest in any other name with a number like that? Maybe, but only with the understanding that the investment was speculative in nature.
At the end of last year, the firm's Operating Margin printed at 3.62%. Hoo-ray. 3%. For comparison's sake, for the same period, Target's (TGT - Get Report) operating margin is above 5%. Really? Is that true? You can look it up sport.
We could go on. There are positives to be sure. There are also more negatives. For me this remains a spec play, and not at all a core position.
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