- Investors started the year more conservative than the Fed. Three out of four investors (75 percent) are projecting one or two hikes this year, compared to the Fed's stated agenda of three hikes in 2018.
- But overall, investors are confident in the health of the economy to support rate increases. Two out of three (66 percent) investors believe the economy is healthy enough to enact further rate hikes this year.
- Nearly all expect a hike this month. Tracking closely with CME probabilities of a rate hike, more than nine out of 10 (93 percent) investors believe it is likely that the Fed will announce an interest rate increase during its March meeting.
Mr. Loewengart also offered additional observations from the survey on how views of the Fed can vary by generation:
- Boomers are the most hawkish. Three out of 10 Boomers (31 percent) think the Fed will raise rates three times or more this year—the most predicted by any age group.
- Millennials are the most dovish. Nearly nine out of 10 Millennials (85 percent) believe we're on pace for two or fewer hikes this year. In contrast, 78 percent of Gen Xers and 69 percent of Boomers believe we'll get two or fewer hikes this year.
- Gen Xers aren't as confident in the economy or new leadership. Slightly more than three out of five (62 percent) Gen Xers believe the US economy is healthy enough for additional rate hikes this year—the lowest out of any age group. And nearly a quarter (24 percent) believe new Fed leadership will be negative for the economy—the highest out of any age group.
|How many more times do you think the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in 2018?|
|Four or more||3%||4%||3%||1%|
|How likely do you think it is that there will be a rate increase by the Federal Reserve in March 2018, which is the announcement with a press conference?|
|Top 2 Box||93%||91%||91%||96%|
|Bottom 2 Box||7%||9%||9%||4%|
|The US economy is healthy enough for the Fed to enact additional rate hikes this quarter.|
|Agree (Top 2 Box)||66%||67%||62%||70%|
|Neither agree nor disagree||25%||27%||27%||22%|
|Disagree (Bottom 2 Box)||9%||6%||11%||8%|
|When it comes to the economy, do you think the new Fed leadership will be...|
|Positive (Top 2 Box)||69%||71%||63%||73%|
|Negative (Bottom 2 Box)||18%||19%||24%||11%|
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