Activision Blizzard (ATVI) suffered through the flash correction just like everyone else. On Feb. 8, Action Alerts PLUS holding Activision reported Q4 earnings that beat expectations on both the top and bottom lines. Revenue, in fact, posted at record levels. Full-year operating cash flow? Another record. Overall, the firm can boast 385 million monthly active users. For comparison, current estimates for the U.S. population are running at roughly 328 million.
Players, by the way, spend about 50 minutes per day playing games across the Activision, Blizzard, and King lines. What these folks do for a living, I can't imagine, but hey, I'm an investor.
On Feb. 21, NDP Group announced that video game sales had grown 59% for January on a year-over-year basis. Hardware (+119%), Software (+51%), and accessories (+37%) all shared in the growth. Maybe, it's just more fun to pretend you live in another world. I don't know. I don't care. I only care if I can somehow profit from the growing behavior of these basement dwellers.
No take a look at this. Activision closed higher Wednesday while the entire equity world went into a late-afternoon free-fallapalooza. The trend from June (green) presents a straight line to victory. The stock bounced smartly off of the flash correction at nearly a precise 61.8% re-tracement level (blue).
Relative Strength? Improving. Daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)? The 12-, 26-, and 9-day exponential moving averages (EMAs) all present in positive territory, and guess what? The name just experienced a bullish cross-over. Money Flow? Meh. That said, Activision has been in the green all year.
Am I worried about my long position in this name in this environment? The truth is that I wish I bought more. If this environment allows me the chance to get more at a discount. I will act.
Since December, the trend has been sharp to the north, even accounting for a choppy February. The stock now stands where it has failed before. The Pitchfork (orange) illustrates a share price pressed up against the resistance of a central trend line that if taken and held, could allow for prices as high as $80 later this Spring. Even failure at this spot looks to me to likely benefit from rising support that approaches $72 within a couple of weeks.
Don't have the cash? Cautious about making a large capital outlay? The $72 puts expiring in two weeks went out last night with a bid of $1.22. What does that mean? Simple. If you write that put, you produce $122 worth of revenue less commission. Even if you get run over, your net basis cost is $70.78 for shares that you thought were attractive at $72, and had closed at $73.13 when you made the decision. In fact, if the premium is still there this morning, I'm going to write this put. Race ya.
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