"September's early-stage delinquency rate increased by 0.3 percent from a year ago, the largest increase since June 2009. This does not reflect a deterioration in credit, but rather the impact of the hurricanes in Texas, Florida and Puerto Rico," said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist for CoreLogic. "September's early-stage delinquency transition rate rose to 2.6 percent in Texas and it rose to 3.2 percent in Florida, which is higher than the 1 percent that's typical for both states. Texas and Florida's early-stage delinquency transition rates in September are much lower than New Orleans in September 2005 when the transition rate reached 17.4 percent as a result of Hurricane Katrina."Since early-stage delinquencies can be volatile, CoreLogic also analyzes transition rates. The share of mortgages that transitioned from current to 30 days past due was 1.3 percent in September 2017, up from 0.9 percent in September 2016. The September rate was the highest for any month in nearly three years, since November 2014 when it was 1.4 percent. By comparison, in January 2007, just before the start of the financial crisis, the current-to-30-day transition rate was 1.2 percent and it peaked in November 2008 at 2 percent. "While natural hazard risk was elevated in 2017, the economic fundamentals that drive mortgage credit performance are the best in two decades," said Frank Martell, president and CEO of CoreLogic. "The combination of strong job growth, low unemployment rates, steady economic performance and prudent underwriting has led to continued improvement in mortgage performance heading into next year." For ongoing housing trends and data, visit the CoreLogic Insights Blog: www.corelogic.com/blog. Methodology The data in this report represents foreclosure and delinquency activity reported through September 2017. The data in this report accounts for only first liens against a property and does not include secondary liens. The delinquency, transition and foreclosure rates are measured only against homes that have an outstanding mortgage. Homes without mortgage liens are not typically subject to foreclosure and are, therefore, excluded from the analysis. Approximately one-third of homes nationally are owned outright and do not have a mortgage. CoreLogic has approximately 85 percent coverage of U.S. foreclosure data.
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