Respect the yield curve.
As you can see illustrated by this chart, the erosion of the yield curve since 2013 has happened in almost slow motion -- far different from the sudden crash seen in this space from 2004 into 2005. Keep in mind that equity markets really did not melt down until 2008/2009, despite the violence seen in treasury markets that occurred well ahead of that horrific action.
My thought is that we are still a long way from having to worry about an inversion of this curve, and that a Jerome Powell-led central bank would refrain from pushing the fed funds rate long before the two yields come close to colliding. The trajectory of the curve suggests time to think before this happens.
If that should change and the slope of the curve become negative far more quickly than I expect, history suggests one would still have some time to adjust one's equity portfolio accordingly.
Worry level? Six out of 10, with the right reserved to change my mind.
(This is an excerpt from Stephen "Sarge" Guilfoyle's Morning Recon, which now appears exclusively on Real Money, our premium site for active traders. Click here for a free 14-day trial and receive Morning Recon every day, along with exclusive columns from Jim Cramer, James "RevShark" DePorre, technical analyst Bruce Kamich and more.)
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