The proposed deal for $105 billion, or $130 billion including the debt, would set a new high-water mark for valuations in the rapidly consolidating semiconductor industry. If it goes through, Broadcom's stock, which was gaining 1% to $277.50 on Tuesday late morning, could be worth $410 to $450 per share, BMO Capital Markets analyst Tim Long suggested in a Monday note.
Editor's note: This article was originally published by The Deal, a sister publication of TheStreet that offers sophisticated insight and analysis on all types of deals, from inception to integration. Click here for a free trial.
"We are positive on Broadcom's audacious bid for Qualcomm." Long wrote. "We continue to see Broadcom build on its track record of making acquisitions that are highly accretive to its free cash flow and earnings."
Mergers are a sign of the times in the chip sector. Qualcomm itself is far along in its effort to buy NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI - Get Report) for $38 billion, or $47 billion including debt. Marvell Technology Group Ltd. (MRVL - Get Report) said Monday it will buy Cavium Inc. (CAVM) for $6 billion. Broadcom itself was formed in February 2016 in a $37 billion merger with Avago Technologies Ltd., which acquired LSI Corp. for $6.6 billion in 2013. In 2015, Intel Corp. (INTC - Get Report) paid $16.7 billion for Altera Corp., and NXP (NXPI - Get Report) acquired Freescale Semiconductor Inc. for $11.8 billion.
BMO's Long projects that a combined Broadcom-Qualcomm-NXP would earn $29.05 per share in calendar year 2019. Applying a multiple of 14 times, which is Broadcom's five-year median P/E multiple, produces a $410 per share bottom range. And a discounted cash flow valuation of projected calendar year 2021 free cash flow ($20.1 billion) yields the $450 per-share price at the high-end of the range.
Shares of Qualcomm dropped 0.1% to $66.40 on Tuesday morning, a discount to Broadcom's bid of $70 per share in cash and stock.
Qualcomm investors are looking for a payout of $80 per share, according to Bloomberg. When Broadcom made its offer earlier in November, The Deal suggested that the offer was "a little light" and that Broadcom might have to eventually pay more.
Broadcom has said it would buy Qualcomm whether the company closes its $38 billion purchase of NXP or not, which shows it's not offering a premium for NXP.
Earlier this month, European Commission antitrust Commissioner Margrethe Vestager said the body will not rule on Qualcomm's purchase of NXP until next year. However, Reuters reported on Monday that the company is close to receiving antitrust approval from Japan's government and would make concessions to receive clearance in Europe by the end of the year.
Join us in New York City on Nov. 30 for The Deal Economy Conference, where leading industry experts and other influential members of the deal community will gather to discuss key issues that will confront dealmakers in 2018.
More of What's Trending on TheStreet: