Futures fell on Sunday, Oct. 29, with tax reform updates, new job numbers, a Fed nominee and an intensifying probe into the Trump campaign's potential collusion with Russia making for a volatile week.
Dow Jones Industrial Average futures dropped 0.03% Sunday evening, while S&P 500 futures fell 0.09% and Nasdaq futures were down 0.06%. The dollar rose 0.03% against the euro and 0.04% against the yen, falling 0.01% against the pound.
Nonfarm payroll numbers are due from the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday. Analysts surveyed by FactSet expect the economy to have added 310,000 jobs in October, leaving the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.2%. Earnings are expected to rise 2.7% year over year.
"We are forecasting a huge 350,000 rebound in payroll employment in October, as the impact of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma are reversed," wrote Capital Economics. "But the bigger picture remains that payroll employment growth will trend lower over the next few years."
House Republicans are expected to unveil their tax reform plan on Wednesday, according to CNBC. Details are scarce. On 401(k)s, for instance, President Donald Trump denied reports that Republicans are cutting 401k contribution tax rules, with Ways and Means chairman Kevin Brady saying lawmakers are now considering raising the limit to at least $20,000.
Also coming on Wednesday is an announcement on the Federal Reserve's interest rates decision. According to CME Group Fed funds futures, investors think there's just a 1.5% chance of a hike in November, with a 96% hike in December.
An announcement on the Federal Reserve chair should also be forthcoming.
"Despite labor market slack declining to new cycle lows, wage growth has picked up only gradually and there is little sign of broad wage pressures," wrote Credit Suisse's James Sweeney. "An upside surprise in the ECI [Employment Cost Index] may give the Fed some further confidence that a tight labor market will eventually pass through into higher inflation, while a miss to the downside strengthens the case for a delay in rate hikes advocated by some FOMC officials concerned about structurally lower inflation."
According to Goldman Sachs research, in 2018, corporations and ETFs are expected to be the dominant buyers of U.S. equities, buying $590 billion and $400 billion worth, respectively. Households will buy just $10 billion, while mutual funds and pensions will sell $125 billion and $250 billion, respectively.
The investigations into the Trump campaign's possible ties with Russia may heat up this week, with CNN, Reuters and the Wall Street Journal all reporting over the weekend that a federal grand jury approved the first charges in the case, adding that the indictment could be unsealed, and the target arrested, on Monday. In a series of tweets Sunday morning, Trump repeated his belief that the investigation by former FBI director Robert Mueller is a "Witch Hunt."
All of this "Russia" talk right when the Republicans are making their big push for historic Tax Cuts & Reform. Is this coincidental? NOT!— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 29, 2017
Meanwhile, earnings season continues.
In consumer and healthcare earnings, Mondelez International Inc. (MDLZ) will report on Monday; Kellogg Co. (K) and Under Armour Inc. (UA) on Tuesday; Clorox Co. (CLX) , Estee Lauder Cos. (EL) , Groupon Inc. (GRPN) , Honda Motor Co. (HMC) , Kraft Heinz Co. (KHC) , Molson Coors Brewing Co. (TAP) , Shake Shack Inc. (SHAK) and Sodastream International Ltd. (SODA) on Wednesday; Blue Apron Holdings Inc. (APRN) , Starbucks Corp. (SBUX) and Yum! Brands Inc. (YUM) on Thursday; and Revlon Inc. (REV) and Sotheby's (BID) on Friday.
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