A string of severe hurricanes that swept across the south and southeastern portions of the U.S. and Puerto Rico toward the end of the third quarter could put a big dent in economic growth.
Investors will get the chance to see exactly how big that blow was when a preliminary reading on third-quarter GDP in the U.S. is released on Friday, Oct. 27.
"This was such a bizarre quarter because of those hurricanes," Ken Mahoney, president of Mahoney Asset Management, said in a call. "Most economists have seen that as an aberration and I think whatever the number is going to show for GDP, much like the unemployment report, could be an aberration with an asterisk next to it."
Economists surveyed by FactSet anticipate the U.S. economy to have grown 2.5% from July to September, slowing from 3.1% growth in the second quarter. This is just a preliminary number -- it will go through two revisions.
Elsewhere on the economic calendar: The Markit PMI manufacturing index for October will be released on Tuesday, Oct. 24; durable goods orders and new home sales for September will be issued on Wednesday, Oct. 25; international trade in goods and the pending home sales index for September are scheduled for Thursday, Oct. 26; and the final reading on consumer sentiment for October is expected on Friday.
The pace of earnings in the coming week accelerates again with 183 S&P 500 on the calendar reporting. Just under one-fifth of S&P 500 companies have already reported in what is turning out to be a better-than-expected third quarter. So far, just more than 70% of those that have reported have exceeded analysts' profit estimates, according to Thomson Reuters, while nearly 72% have bested sales consensus.
"The earnings story I think is the story that's holding up the market right now," saidMahoney, pointing to recent record gains for the three major indexes. "A lot of people are coming into this earnings season thinking let's sell the news and that hasn't happened."
For the quarter as a whole, analysts anticipate blended earnings growth of 4.2%, or 2.1% excluding energy, according to Thomson Reuters estimates. Revenue is expected to rise by 4.4%.
Tech and telecom earnings in the week ahead include Seagate Technology PLC (STX) on Monday, Oct. 23; Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) , AT&T Inc. (T) and Texas Instruments Inc. (TXN) on Tuesday; and Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) , Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) , Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) , and Xerox Corp. (XRX) on Thursday.
Consumer earnings include VF Corp. (VFC) , Hasbro Inc. (HAS) , and Kimberly-Clark Corp. (KMB) on Monday; Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (CMG) , Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (FCAU) , General Motors Co. (GM) and McDonald's Corp. (MCD) on Tuesday; Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD) , Coca-Cola Co. (KO) , Visa Inc. (V) and Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. (WBA) on Wednesday; Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD) , Ford Motor Co. (F) and Mattel Inc. (MAT) on Thursday; and Colgate-Palmolive Co. (CL) on Friday.
In healthcare earnings, Biogen Inc. (BIIB) and Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY) will report on Tuesday; Amgen Inc. (AMGN) and Anthem Inc. (ANTM) on Wednesday; Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. (BMY) , Gilead Sciences (GILD) and Celgene Corp. (CELG) on Thursday; and AbbVie Inc. (ABBV) and Merck & Co. (MRK) on Friday.
Oil and industrials earnings include Halliburton Co. (HAL) on Monday; 3M Co. (MMM) , Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) , Lockheed Martin Corp. (LMT) , Stanley Black & Decker Inc. (SWK) and United Technologies Corp. (UTX) on Tuesday; Boeing Co. (BA) on Wednesday; ConocoPhillips (COP) and Statoil ASA (STO) on Thursday; and Chevron Corp. (CVX) and Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) on Friday.
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