According to analysis from Fundstrat's Thomas Lee, FANG stocks are predicted to underperform the broader market in 2018 for no reason other than the number next year ends in.
Over the past 11 years, FANG stocks, made up of Facebook Inc. (FB) , Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) , Netflix Inc. (NFLX) and Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) , have alternated back and forth between even and odd years.
Since 2006, in odd years, FANG stocks outperformed the S&P 500 Index by an average of 4,850 basis points. In even years, the stocks underperformed the S&P 500 by an average of 320 basis points.
FANG names have outperformed in 100% of the odd years since 2006 and only 33% of even years during the same period. The only outlier is Facebook, which has outperformed the S&P 500 each of the last six years since its IPO in 2012.
The reason this FANG move is so freaky is that earnings aren't predictive. The names haven't reported cyclical earnings, and the only down year was 2012. As listings that typically dominate their respective industries, FANG stocks increase market power each year and are on track to grow EPS by 29% in 2017.
The driver, then, isn't earnings, but rather contraction in price to earnings ratios, Fundstrat said. P/E contracts roughly 5.3 times in even years, but it grows 3.8 times in odd years. Lee called this a "mystery similar to Stonehenge."
Given that reasoning, 2018 is set to be a bummer year for FANG stocks. Fundstrat offered instead 18 "alternative FANG stocks." Here they are.
- Discretionary: Churhcill Downs Inc. (CHDN) , NVR Inc. (NVR) and Vail Resorts Inc. (MTN)
- Industrials: A.O. Smith Corp. (AOS) , Healthcare Services Group Inc. (HCSG) , John Bean Technologies Corp. (JBT) and TransDigm Group Inc. (TDG)
- Technology: Broadcom Ltd. (AVGO) , LogMeIn Inc. (LOGM) , Lam Research Corp. (LRCX) and Stamps.com Inc. (STMP)
- Financials: Cboe Global Markets Inc. (CBOE) , MarketAxess Holdings Inc. (MKTX) , SVB Financial Group (SIVB) and Western Alliance Bancorp. (WAL)
- Staples: Constellation Brands Inc. (STZ)
- Healthcare: Abiomed Inc. (ABMD)
- Telecom Services: Shenandoah Telecommunications Co. (SHEN)
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