You get it? I don't.
Global stock markets continue to hit fresh records, as TheStreet's U.K. deputy bureau chief, Martin Baccardax, wrote. It's really remarkable what we are seeing in the market presently in that risk factors are being completely ignored. A growing number of mass tragedies -- ignored by investors. No clear-cut timeline on Trump's tax plan -- ignored. The under-staffed Federal Reserve unwinding its monstrous balance sheet -- that too ignored. Trump getting to pick the next Fed chair, and so on. All in all insanity, which will end badly at some point before the calendar turns to 2018.
At least we finally get one market signal that suggests a blow off from these highs could be nearing. According to a new survey of stock analysts from Bank of America Merrill Lynch, the group hit "extreme bullishness" at the end of September. As BI pointed out, this level is now two times greater than the four-year average. Such a reading has historically been a bearish indicator on stocks, noted Bank of America Merrill Lynch. The good times can't continue forever, so you may want to respect this indicator and buy something with a dividend yield over 3%.
Don't Get So Jacked About Tax Reform Just Yet, Bro
Goldman Sachs is out with a lovely note for the stock market bears, what's left of them anyway. The white glove investment bank only sees a 65% chance of tax reform by 2018. Here are there reasons why:
- No revenue target has been established.
- Major details of the plan are virtually non-existent, creating an unknown on whether key parties will come to an agreement.
- Proposed tax increases may not be realistic.
Ultimate winner here: accountants. At least Kiss legend Gene Simmons is bullish on the tax plan, and stock market.
Tesla Just Proved One Thing: It's NOT Worth $57 Billion
The electric car maker led by the big-thinking Elon Musk said Monday evening that it delivered 220 Model 3s during the third quarter. The problem: Musk boasted in August that Tesla would produce 1,500 Model 3s just in September, ramping up to 20,000 a month come December. Overall, Tesla delivered 26,150 vehicles in the third quarter, logging a personal best for sales of the Model S and Model X.
Tesla shares will likely be under pressure during Tuesday's session -- they fell as much as 2% in early trading.
But the bad whiff on Model 3 deliveries raises two key questions on this stock market darling. One, why in the world is Tesla still trading on a market cap of more than $57 billion? The reason why Tesla shares have skyrocketed 50% over the past year is in large part due to optimism on the Model 3. If Musk can't deliver these cheap electric cars in mass, and keep emerging rivals like General Motors (GM - Get Report) at bay, the market has to readjust its thinking on Tesla. Bottom line -- these cars are key to quickly bringing in badly needed cash for Tesla.
And that ultimately raises question two: What is the status of Musk right now?
It seems that nowadays, Tesla is nothing more than a side project for Musk. Take for example last Friday, where Musk's latest idea of flying people in rockets from coast to coast blew up Twitter. So did his overall views on space travel and the future of his SpaceX creation (he spoke at a space industry conference). Surely, Musk will be tweeting more about space travel and the hyperloop (and God knows what else -- maybe new SolarCity solar panels that help solve world hunger) in the weeks and months to come. That should remind every Tesla investor of this risk factor buried in the electric car company's annual report:
"We are highly dependent on the services of Elon Musk, our Chief Executive Officer, Chairman of our Board of Directors and largest stockholder. Although Mr. Musk spends significant time with Tesla and is highly active in our management, he does not devote his full time and attention to Tesla. Among other commitments, Mr. Musk also currently serves as Chief Executive Officer and Chief Technical Officer of Space Exploration Technologies, a developer and manufacturer of space launch vehicles."
From the outside, Musk looks increasingly stretched at a time in which all his attention should be on making Tesla profitable. He has an obligation to shareholders to deliver (actual results such as Model 3 deliveries, not just a higher stock price), and whether he is able to fulfill that is a major unknown. It's time he looks in the mirror, acknowledges his true passion (perhaps space travel) and hands the baton off to an outside CEO to run Tesla.
Because let's face it, Musk hasn't done a good job of building his executive bench. Just take a look at the sparse executive team at Tesla.
How's this tweet working out for ya, Elon?
Join Jim Cramer, CNBC's Jon Najarian and Other Experts Oct. 28 in New York
Jim Cramer will host CNBC's Jon Najarian, TD Ameritrade's JJ Kinahan, famed analytics expert Marc Chaikin and other market mavens on Oct. 28 in New York City to share successful strategies for active investors.
You can join them as they discuss how smart investors can make the most of options trading, futures contracts, fundamental and quantitative analysis and great ETFs to buy right now. Participants will also get a chance to meet Jim and other panelists and take photos.
When: Saturday, Oct. 28, 8 a.m.-3 p.m.
Where: The Harvard Club of New York, 35 West 44th St., New York, N.Y.
Cost: Special early bird price: $150 per person. (Normal price: $250)
Click here for the full conference agenda or to reserve your seat now.
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