A snapshot of the labor market and more speculation over future interest rate hikes characterize the first week of October and the fourth quarter.
The month kicks off with a jobs report, the first full month in which the effects of Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria on the labor market will be laid bare. Weekly jobless claims have already shown the initial impact with the number of new applications for unemployment benefits seeing an uptick in recent weeks.
Economists surveyed by FactSet anticipate 75,000 jobs to have been added to the U.S. economy in September, a sharp slowdown from the 156,000 jobs added in August. The measure has not fallen below the 100,000 mark since March and has only been below that threshold four times in the past five years.
The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.4%. Hourly earnings are forecast to climb by 10 basis points to 2.6% year over year. On a month-by-month basis, earnings are expected to increase to 0.25% from 0.1%.
Investors will get another chance to elucidate Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen's thinking on the future path of rate hikes in the coming week. Yellen is set to deliver the opening remarks at the Community Banking in the 21st Century Conference in St. Louis, Miss., on Wednesday, Oct. 4.
Last time Yellen spoke on the economy, investors left puzzled. In comments in the past week, Yellen took a far more dovish tone but kept the possibility of an interest rate hike in December alive. Previous comments from the Fed following its September meeting made the possibility of a December rate hike far more certain. Investors are confident the Fed will move by the end of the year -- a December hike has a 76% chance, according to CME Group fed funds futures.
Also on the economic calendar in the coming week: The PMI Manufacturing Index and the ISM Manufacturing Index for September, and construction spending for August will be released on Monday, Oct. 2; motor vehicle sales for September will be released throughout Tuesday, Oct. 3; the ADP employment report and the ISM non-manufacturing index for September on Wednesday, Oct. 4; international trade and factory orders for August on Thursday, Oct. 5.
In earnings news, Cal-Maine Foods Inc. (CALM) on Monday; Lennar Corp. (LEN) on Tuesday; Acuity Brands Inc. (AYI) , Monsanto Co. (MON) and PepsiCo Inc. (PEP) on Wednesday; and Constellation Brands Inc. (STZ) , Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST) and Yum! China Holdings Inc. (YUMC) on Thursday.
The third-quarter earnings season won't kick off in earnest until the following week. Financials such as Citigroup Inc. (C) , JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) , Bank of America Corp. (BAC) and Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC) will unofficially kick off the reporting period with earnings out on Thursday, Oct. 12, and Friday, Oct. 13.
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